노무현정부와 이명박정부의 대북정책 비교

강선태 건국대학교 행정대학원 2009 국내석사

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the policies toward North Korea of Rho Moo-Hyun and Lee Myung-Bak governments and to find out the difference and the identicalness on the policy of the two regimes based on this analysis and grope the appropriate and consistent direction of North Korea Policy by overcoming the difference. The followings are the results of the comparison on the North Korea Policy of Rho Moo-Hyun and Lee Myung-Bak governments. 1. The North Korea Policy approaching methods of the two regimes are totally different. Rho Moo-Hyun government approached the relationship toward North Korea with the viewpoint of nationalism while Lee Myung-Bak government is approaching it as international relationship. So, in case of the North Korea Nuclear, Rho Moo-Hyun government dealt with it separately according to the principle of separation of politics and economics. Rather, his regime had a tendency to indentify the North Korea Nuclear as a separate issue between the North Korea and the U.S. As a result, the solution for the North Korea Nuclear appeared differently. Rho Moo-Hyun government intervened actively with the viewpoint of nationalism, but at the same time they would sometimes kept the passive attitude. On the contrary, Lee Myung-Bak government proclaimed the principle of denuclearization and opening 3,000 from the beginning, and clearly announced that they would support the North Korea based on the progress of the nuclear issue, and they are applying practicalism and mutualism as methods. Current relationship between the two Koreas is completely blocked and its future is opaque since Lee Myung-Bak regime. 2. There are many factors for backgrounds which form the North Korea Policy, but it appears to be greatly affected by ruler's value, belief, philosophy, and experiences in life. If it is the formula for the North Korea Policy to be determined by the mutual consent of the nation rather than by the particular political party or a ruler, it is my judgment that being changed of the North Korea Policy according to the change of the regime is not appropriate. 3. I observed the North Korea Policy with the viewpoint of integration theory, but I think the relationship between the two Koreas has a limitation. The North Korea approaching method with the viewpoint of functionalism is clearly expected to be effective, but it is difficult to judge the policy effect because continuous interchanges and cooperation is a challenge. 4. As Lee Myung-Bak government began, there were three causes for blockage of the South Korea-North Korea Relations. All three factors were related to the North Korea Policy, and one of them is judged to be North Korea's complaint because Lee's regime is pressuring North Korea with the policy of denuclearization and opening 3,000 whose conditions are not acceptable to them. The second cause is the insertion of the unique socialism emotion that they feel the joint declaration and mutual agreement set by Kim Jeong-Il of North Korea and the former presidents Kim Dae-Joong and Rho Moo-Hyun are selectively accepted by the President of South Korea. And the third factor is that the terms and policies on North Korea Policy are hard to be accepted by North Korea. As an example, the term Denuclearization and Opening 3,000 seems to be no problem as a North Korea Policy term for South Korean government, but it is a policy and term that is hard to be accepted by the North Korea side, namely, the North Korea Nuclear is not only a threat as a nuclear weapon, but also it is being used as a mean to maintain its system in North Korea. That is because the U.S is the only answer for the security of North Korea's system if they choose to follow the principle of denuclearization in the Korean peninsular and to be guaranteed of its system. 5. Henceforth, the appropriate directions for North Korea Policy are as followings. First, we will have to carefully review the strategy of the U.S for the northeast Asia and manage the neighboring countries and North Korea in order to accomplish the unification by establishing the North Korea Policy that will be favorable to our side in terms of North Korea Relations. Second, while maintaining the principle, the policies toward North Korea of the governments of Rho Moo-Hyun and Lee Myung-Bak should be mixed and implemented, and it should be directed toward the strengthening of practicalism and mutualism. In other words, it is my thought that it will be wise to choose a comprise which corrects the bad habits of North Korea step by step as we drive the North Korea Policy toward practicalism and mutualism while supporting North Korea.

North Korea's post-cold war dilemma : a multi-level analysis

김규일 Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei U 2004 국내석사

Most analysts on North Korea have so far taken what Kenneth Waltz called "reductionist approach," which can be categorized into three: (1) The first defines North Korea as a rouge state, and a born-aggressor. According to this view, Pyongyang always perpetuates wrongdoings because so is its nature. (2) Another reductionists, on the other hand, believe North Korea's "sincere" effort to open its society and to reconcile with its former enemies. This argument takes it granted progressive changes in North Korea after the breakup of the Soviet Union. (3) The third assumes Pyongyang as a rational decision-maker. This view holds that the aggressive actions and belligerent remarks by North Korea are deliberately intended to get bargaining power. It intentionally uses such tension to disperse domestic complaints and to attain more bargaining chips for economic assistance from western countries. Although the three analyses that focus on uni-level analyses-mostly on the domestic characteristics - certainly help understanding some parts of North Korea's behaviors in the international scene, they all failed to draw a comprehensive picture of it. All three analyses failed to come up with a full explanation because their analyses define the regime's characteristic first, consider it as given, and then attempt to explain the regime's behavior within the 'given' characteristic. In order to overcome this limitation, this research attempts to take a multi-level approach toward the North in the post-Cold War era. Before doing so, it examines the uni-level perspectives (system perspectives and domestic decision-making perspectives respectively). Then, it introduces the multi-level approaches such as Robert Putnam's "Two-level game theory" and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's "strategic perspective," which try to explain a state's foreign policy behavior by combining the state's domestic politics and its international interactions with other states. And then, it considers the validity of "multi-level analysis" in terms of North Korea's foreign policy behavior. A multi-level approach could help better explain the underlying reasoning and patterns behind the North's repetitive behavior in the post-Cold War era. The multi-level analysis of international pressures and domestic preferences divides the post-Cold War period into six in order to show the contrasting patterns of the North's behavior. 1989-1993 period indicate Pyongyang's domestic preferences for the post-Cold War order, but the following period (1993-1994) shows its backward due to the external security pressure from the outside of the world. During 1994-2000, the North could manage to bargain with other the United States, but were not able to reach an equilibrium for its stable foreign policy decision. Hence, when the Bush administration took the hard stance against the regime, Pyongyang once again pull back and shrank (2000-2001). However, the domestic needs in North Korea still continued to grow and in the following period (2001-2002), Korean peninsula experienced unprecedented peace movement. Still, that did not mean an equilibrium for the North and the security pressure from the United States were hardened in October 2002, the atmosphere in the communist state became hawkish again. While the remnants of the Cold War structure (international pressures) remain large enough to confine the North's decision-makers, the domestic demands for economic changes are also equally constraining them. In this regard, Pyongyang will continue to sway between the two system structures for the time being unless there is a convincing security assurance from the United States.

Human Rights in North Korea - The Conflict between Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and Civil and Political Rights -

정기쁨 서울대학교 대학원 2023 국내석사

The condition of human rights in North Korea is a highly contested topic in South Korea, an issue that is divided along the lines of political affiliation. Conservatives usually promote the notion of Civil and Political Rights (CPR) as the most important aspect of North Korean Human Rights (NKHR), and argue that the dire condition of NKHR can improve only through a change in the political system of the North. Liberals, on the other hand, emphasise the support the South can provide to the North regarding Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ESCR). Because of the stark differences in the perspectives towards NKHR depending on the political party, South Korea has had difficulties in carrying out consistent North Korea policy, and in making meaningful changes in NKHR conditions. This thesis examines the discourse of NKHR and analyse the reasons for the conflict in the concept of NKHR. In order to conduct a profound analysis, it explores the historical backgrounds of human rights discourse in the DPRK, as well as the roots in NKHR discourses in the ROK, the US, and the EU. This thesis concludes with a policy suggestion to the South Korean government regarding NKHR: 1) the government ought to approach NKHR with contextual universalism (as Bo-hyuk Suh argues); 2) both CPR and ESCR should be supported by criticising the North's leadership when CPRs are infringed, and providing assistance when the North Korean regime is making efforts to enhance the situation of ESCRs; and 3) the government should maintain a consistent attitude and NKHR policies regardless of the political affiliation of the ruling party. 북한 인권은 한국 사회 및 국제 사회에서 끊임없이 논란 거리가 되어왔다. 북한 인권 중에서도 시민적, 정치적 권리(자유권)를 더 옹호하는 국내의 보수와 경제적, 사회적 및 문화적 권리(사회권)를 더 중시하는 국내의 진보의 싸움이 되어 실제적인 북한 인권 수준의 향상보다는 정치적인 논쟁으로 소모되어 온 것이 현실이다. 또한, 1990년대 북한의 경제위기로 인해 다수의 탈북자가 발생하며 북한 내의 인권 실태가 전세계적으로 알려지기에 이르렀다. 그렇다면 북한 인권을 향상시킨다는 같은 목적을 두고도 국내의 보수와 진보가 다른 입장을 견지하는 이유는 무엇일까? 한반도 밖에서는 북한 인권을 증진시키기 위한 어떤 노력을 하고 있으며 이를 바탕으로 한국이 취해야 할 입장은 무엇인가? 본 논문은 한국 내외의 북한인권 담론을 분석하고 한국이 나아가야 할 방향을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 한국의 보수는 주로 자유권에 주목하여 북한인권 담론을 형성하며 북한인권의 향상을 위하여 북의 정권 붕괴를 주장하여 온 반면, 진보는 북한인권 중 사회권을 강조함으로 북한의 정권과 협력할 것을 주장하여 왔다. 미국과 유럽연합 또한 각각 북한인권에 대하여 다른 태도를 취하여 왔다. 북한과 더 직접적인 이해관계를 가지는 미국은 자유권을 강조하며 북한을 압박하기 위하여 북한인권 담론을 이용하기도 하였다. 북한으로부터 비교적 안보위협을 적게 받는 유럽연합은 국제사회의 대북제재에 동참할 때에도 인도적 지원은 멈추지 않는 등의 한국이나 미국보다는 관대한 태도를 보여왔다. 이러한 연구를 바탕으로 본 논문은 북한, 한국, 미국, 유럽연합의 북한인권 담론을 비교분석하고 한국 정부가 북한인권에 관하여 문맥적 보편주의를 토대로 접근할 것, 자유권과 사회권을 균형 있게 추구할 것, 정부의 정치적 경향과 관계 없이 일관된 정책을 유지할 것을 주장하며 마무리한다.

A Comparative Study on the DPRK's Foreign Policy Toward Africa : - During the Kim Il Sung and the Kim Jung Un Eras

정지혜 서울대학교 대학원 2021 국내석사

국문 초록 (ABSTRACT IN KOREA) 핵무기 보유를 견제하기 위한 국제사회의 제재와 징벌적 조치에도 불구하고, 국제사회에서 고립되어 있으며 재정으로도 열악한 북한은 여전히 상대적으로 안정적인 정권을 유지하고 있다. 북한의 국제 관계 연구에 있어 자세히 연구되지 않았던 비주류에 속하는 외교적 현상에 대한 정밀한 분석은 국제사회에 위협이 되는 북한 문제를 다른 방식으로 다룰 수 있는 대안적인 관점을 제공할 수 있다. 이러한 배경에서 아프리카에 대한 북한 대외정책의 방향 전환의 배경과 구체적인 외부요인이 김일성 시대 데탕트 시대(1960~1979)와 김정은 시대(2011~2011년)의 비교연구를 기준으로 본 논문에서 분석된다. 어떤 측면에서 북한과 아프리카 외교 관계 연구가 의미가 있는 것인가? 우선, 김일성 통치 시기에 속하는 데탕트 시대의 경우, 북한은 주체사상을 기반으로 군사 및 인력 그리고 재정적 지원을 아프리카에 제공하는 등 안정된 외교 관계를 아프리카 국가와 맺기 위해 적극적인 외교적 노력을 기울였다. 이후에도, 고립된 국제적 위치에서 벗어나기 위해 수십 년 동안 북한은 아프리카 국가들과 우호적인 외교 관계를 유지했다. 또한, 김정은 시대에 들어서는 일부 아프리카 국가와의 지속적인 경제적 교류는 유엔과 미국의 제재로 인해 궁핍한 재정을 보충하는 중요한 기회를 제공하였다. 북한의 아프리카 외교 정책이 가장 활발했던 시기와 전례 없이 심각한 국제적 제재에 직면한 김정은 정권 시대의 아프리카 외교를 비교하면 북한의 외교정책변화를 가장 극명하게 살펴볼 수 있을 것이다. 서로 다른 시기에 변화된 북한의 아프리카 외교 정책 연구는 양측간의 고위급 간부의 상호 방문의 빈도와 방문목적 그리고 북한의 아프리카 국가들에 대한 군사적 지원 행태 분석 등의 지표로 측정될 것이다. 북한 대외정책에 영향을 주고 있는 4가지 주요 대외적 요인에는 국제사회의 제재와 아프리카에 대한 북한의 군사적 지원, 남한의 할슈타인(Hallstein Doctrine)원칙에 기반한 외교정책 그리고 비동맹운동(NAM) 연대 등이다. 이와 같은 대외적 요인이 실제로 북한과 아프리카의 외교 관계에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지, 또한 북한의 아프리카 대외정책의 시기별 전환 과정은 어땠는지 자세히 검토할 예정이다. Key words :북한,아프리카,외교 관계,군사교류,국제 제재,남한의 할슈타인(Hallstein Doctrine) 원칙 Student Number: 2017- 20782 ABSTRACT North Korea, an isolated and impoverished nation, still maintains its relatively stable regime despite all the international sanctions and punitive measures. The deep analysis of the hidden foreign relation between the DPRK and Africa could extend our existing perceptions and offer alternative perspectives to handle continuous threats posed by this secretive country in different ways. In this background, crucial external reasons for the reorientation of North Korean foreign policy in Africa will be analyzed by a comparative study between the Détente period (1960-1979) during the Kim Il Sung era and the Kim Jung Un eras (2011- present). Why does the foreign relation between North Korea and African nations matter? In the past, North Korea pursued amicable diplomatic relations with African nations for decades ultimately to obtain reliable supports from them on the international stage in the diplomatic competition with South Korea. Besides promoting the ideology “Juche (self-reliance)” and providing infrastructure and military assistance to African countries, North Korea passionately tried to bond close ties with the African counterparts to escape from its isolated international position. Even until Nowadays, some African countries have still functioned as financial lifelines for the benefits of the DPRK against severe sanctions imposed by the U.N. and the United States, the official diplomatic exchanges between the two regions have significantly decreased. The difference in the previous and current North Korean foreign policy strategies in Africa can be more clearly presented by comparing the détente period when North Korea established the most robust diplomatic relations with African nations and the recent Kim Jong Un regime when its whole external relation is greatly limited under the unprecedentedly severe international sanctions. Firstly, the shifted North Korean foreign policy in Africa during the two different periods will be measured by two indicators: the exchange of high-level officers and the military assistance from North Korea to African nations. Secondly, the four external factors that have been influencing North Korea’s foreign policy were selected: international sanctions, military assistance from the DPRK, the Hallstein doctrine of South Korea, and the solidarity of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). By closely reviewing these factors individually and analyzing what influence they have had on the diplomatic relation between the DPRK and Africa, it will be revealed how the reorientation of the DPRK’s foreign policy in Africa has been evolved. Keywords: North Korea, Africa, diplomatic relation, military exchange, international sanction, Hallstein doctrine of South Korea Student Number: 2017- 20782

북핵 억제를 위한 삼위일체적 접근에 관한 연구 : 의지전달을 중심으로

박용우 조선대학교 정책대학원 2022 국내석사

North Korea has developed nuclear weapons through a total of six nuclear tests since the first nuclear test in 2006 until 2017. In particular, since Kim Jong-un took power, he has promoted the advancement of nuclear weapons and diversification of delivery means through three nuclear tests, and the threat is increasing, including the declaration of the doctrine of preemptive use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, this study investigated what South Korea should do to deter North Korea from nuclear weapons. Focusing on communication among the success factors of nuclear deterrence for North Korea's nuclear deterrence, success factors were derived by analyzing successful cases of communication for nuclear deterrence from the perspective of the Trinity, and applied to North Korea to suggest the development direction of nuclear deterrence communication. This study covers from the first North Korean nuclear crisis in 1993 to the present, and is limited to how to deter North Korea's use of nuclear weapons. In terms of space, it mainly included the United States, its allies, and international organizations involved in deterring North Korea, such as the IAEA, centered on the korean peninsula. As a theoretical background for the study, the relationship between the nuclear deterrence theory and the trinity theory, and the trinity and the success factors of nuclear deterrence were reviewed. And the case analysis deduced what kind of factors to communicate the will of the Indian government, military, and people through the case of India's nuclear deterrence against Pakistan. By analyzing Korea's nuclear deterrence by detailed factors derived through case analysis, the development direction of the government, the military, and the people was presented. In terms of government, the detailed factors were consistent policy, alliance relationship, and leadership decision. The Korean government was able to confirm frequent policy changes and disagreements between the ROK-U.S. alliance whenever there was a change of government. In this regard, the government's communication suggested a consistent policy direction through the establishment of a comprehensive nuclear deterrence strategy based on international cooperation, and suggested the need for consensus of opinion between Korea and the United States through the operation of the ROK-U.S. consultative body, determination of leaders, and the need for diplomatic leadership. In terms of the military, the defense posture, punitive posture, and nuclear posture were derived as detailed factors. The ROK military confirmed that it was necessary to suspend the ROK-U.S. joint exercises in terms of protection posture and to secure the reliability of a customized deterrence strategy in terms of the suspension of the ROK-US combined exercise and the change of some will in the case of the denuclearization negotiations and the nuclear posture aspect. Accordingly, in the direction of development, the necessity of expanding and resuming the target of the ROK-U.S. joint exercise and the punitive posture suggested securing reconnaissance assets, deployment of punitive forces, and deployment of infiltrating assets to improve punitive capacity. In nuclear posture, nuclear sharing and the development of nuclear doctrine were presented to secure the credibility of customized deterrence strategies. In terms of the people, factors such as government policy support, civil defense participation, and civil-military cooperation were derived. In detail, public policy support was low in support of government policies, and civil defense facilities were insufficient and civil defense training was not implemented in a substantive manner in civil defense participation. As a development direction for these problems, the active participation of the public in the policy-making process was required. In addition, public participation-type civil defense training and activation of civil-military information exchange were necessary. Through the study of nuclear deterrence communication, it was judged that balanced communication between the government, the military, and the people for North Korea's nuclear deterrence would be integrated and would have a significant effect on deterring North Korea's nuclear use. It is expected that this study will contribute to an empirical study of North Korea's commitment to nuclear deterrence. 북한은 2006년 1차 핵실험 이후 2017년까지 총 6차례의 핵실험을 통해 핵무기를 개발하였다. 특히 김정은 집권 이후 3차례의 핵실험을 통한 핵무기의 고도화와 투발수단의 다변화를 추진하여 왔으며, 선제적 핵사용 교리 표명 등 그 위협이 증대되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 한국은 북한의 핵억제를 위해 무엇을 해야 하는가에 대해 연구하였다. 북핵 억제를 위한 핵억제 성공요인 중 의지전달에 중점을 두고 핵억제를 위한 의지전달의 성공한 사례를 삼위일체 측면에서 분석하여 성공요인을 도출하고 이를 북한에 적용하여 핵억제 의지전달 발전방향을 제시하였다. 본 연구는 1993년 1차 북핵 위기부터 현재까지 망라하며, 북한의 핵사용을 어떻게 억제할 것인가로 한정하였다. 공간적으로는 주로 한반도를 중심으로 동맹국인 미국과 IAEA 등 북핵 억제에 관여하고 있는 국제기구 등을 포함하였다. 연구를 위한 이론적 배경으로는 핵억제이론과 삼위일체론, 삼위일체와 핵억제 성공요인의 관계를 검토하였다. 그리고 사례분석은 파키스탄에 대한 인도의 핵억제 사례를 통해 인도의 정부, 군대, 국민이 어떠한 의지전달 요인이 작동되었는지 도출하였다. 사례분석을 통해 도출된 세부 요인별 한국의 핵억제를 분석하여 정부 측면, 군대 측면, 국민 측면의 발전방향을 제시하였다. 정부 측면에서 세부 요인으로는 일관된 정책, 동맹 관계, 지도자 결단이 도출되었다. 한국의 정부는 정권 교체 시마다 잦은 정책의 변화와 한미 동맹 간의 의견의 불일치를 확인할 수 있었으며, 지도자 결단의 부재로 인해 의지전달의 혼란을 초래하였다. 이에 정부의 의지전달은 국제적 협력을 기반으로 포괄적 핵억제전략 수립을 통한 일관된 정책 추진방향을 제시하고 한미 협의체 가동을 통해 한미 간의 의견의 일치, 지도자의 결단과 외교적 리더십의 필요성을 제시하였다. 군대 측면에서는 세부 요인으로 방호태세, 응징태세, 핵태세가 도출되었다. 한국군은 방호태세에 있어 한미연합훈련의 중단과 응징태세에서는 비핵화 협상에 따른 일부 의지의 변질과 핵태세 측면에서 맞춤형 억제전략의 신뢰성 확보가 필요함을 확인하였다. 이에 발전방향으로 한미연합훈련의 대상 확대와 재개의 필요성과 응징태세에서는 응징능력 향상을 위해 대북 정찰자산 확보와 응징부대의 전력화와 침투자산의 전력화 등을 제시하였다. 핵태세에서는 맞춤형 억제전략의 신뢰성 확보를 위한 핵 공유와 핵 교리의 발전을 제시하였다. 국민 측면에서는 정부 정책 지지, 민방위 참여, 민군 협력 요인을 도출하였다. 세부적으로 정부 정책 지지에서는 국민의 정책 참여가 저조하고 민방위 참여에서는 민방위 시설이 부족하며 민방공훈련이 내실있게 시행되지 않는 문제점을 식별하였으며, 민군 협력에서는 군의 각종 발표에 대한 낮은 신뢰성 등 정보교류가 필요하였다. 이러한 문제점에 대한 발전방향으로는 국민이 정책결정과정에 적극적인 참여가 필요하였다. 그리고 국민참여형 민방위훈련, 민군 정보교류의 활성화 등을 필요하였다. 핵억제 의지전달 연구를 통해 북한의 핵억제를 위한 정부, 군대, 국민의 균형된 의지전달이 통합되어 북한의 핵사용을 억제하는데 크게 작용할 것을 판단하며, 이 연구를 통해 북한의 핵억제 의지전달의 실증적 연구에 크게 기여할 것으로 기대한다.

제삼자 역할론과 팀워크 이론을 적용한 한반도 감염병 예방을 위한 우리나라와 북한 간 새로운 의사소통 모형 제안

이숙현 연세대학교 일반대학원 2023 국내박사

우리나라와 북한은 2019년에 발생한 아프리카돼지열병으로 사회·경제·환경적 피해를 보았다. 2018년 중국, 북한, 그리고 우리나라는 몇 개월 간격으로 세계동물보건기구에 아프리카돼지열병 발생을 신고하였다. 우리나라의 경우, 주로 군사 분계선을 중심으로 아프리카돼지열병이 발생하였고, 현재까지 그 피해의 범위는 남쪽으로 확대되고 있다. 중국에서 아프리카돼지열병 발생 시점부터 우리나라와 북한이 협력하여 선제적으로 아프리카돼지열병에 대응하였다면, 아프리카돼지열병으로 인한 피해 규모는 최소화될 수 있었을 것이다. 하지만, 우리나라와 북한 간 이러한 주제로 의사소통을 할 수 있는 체계가 확립되어 있지 않았다. 우리나라와 북한은 직접 혹은 하천이나 바다를 통해서 병원체가 전이될 수 있는 지리적인 구조이기 때문에 향후 다시 발생할 수 있는 질병에 대해 선제적으로 대응할 수 있는 협력 체계는 필수적이다. 국민의 생명과 재산을 보호하기 위해 한반도의 안전을 책임져야 할 당사자들 간 의사소통은 불가결한 요소이다. 본 연구에서는 한반도를 둘러싼 국내외 정치 및 이념적인 변수로 인해 지속 가능한 의사소통을 할 수 없는 구조를 극복하기 위해 제삼자 역할론과 팀워크 이론을 적용하여 우리나라와 북한 간 새로운 의사소통 모형을 제안하였다. 단, 감염병의 범위는 인수공통감염병과 경계를 초월한 동물질병으로 제한하였고, 북한에 대한 국내외 역학 구조에 대해서는 논외 사항으로 두었다. 우리나라와 북한 간 새로운 의사소통 모형을 제안하기 전, 인수공통감염병과 경계를 초월한 동물질병에 관해 이해하고, 아프리카와 동남아시아 지역에서 접경 국가 간 감염병 예방·탐지·대응을 위한 의사소통 및 협력 사례 가운데 그들의 도전과제를 고찰하였다. 이는 우리나라와 북한 간 의사소통 고안에 시사점을 안겨 주었다. 또한, 국제보건규약(2005) 및 동물보건규약에 따른 이웃 국가 간 의사소통의 기준을 살펴보았고, 의사소통 시에는 의사소통 전문가와 관련 분야 전문가가 함께 참여한다는 프레임을 도출할 수 있었다. 이를 토대로 현재까지 우리나라와 북한 간 보건 관련 회담의 한계점과 세계보건기구 등 글로벌 플랫폼을 활용하여 소통할 수 있음에도 불구하고 의사소통의 부재가 지속된다는 점을 문제점으로 분석해보았다. 이러한 제한점을 극복하고 지속 가능한 의사소통을 위해 제삼자 역할론과 팀워크 이론을 적용하여 우리나라와 북한의 의사소통 참여자와 장소를 제안하였다. 제삼자 역할은 의사소통을 촉진하는 역할로 역할 범위를 한정하였다. 우리나라와 북한 사이 공통분모를 공유하는 국가, 인간보건과 동물보건과 관련된 정부 간 국제기구, 북한과 지속해서 교류하고 있는 국내외 비영리민간단체와 보건 관련 대학 컨소시엄 등을 제삼자 역할로 제안하였다. 제삼자 역할로 협력하는 국가 및 기관에 대해서는 그들의 분명한 동기부여 및 인센티브가 주어지는 부분을 강조하였다. 특히, 본 연구에서는 한반도를 감염병의 위협으로부터 보호하기 위해 우리나라 정부 부처 및 비정부기구 간의 협력 구조로, 총리실 산하에 북한과 의사소통 전문 부처인 통일부를 주축으로 감염병 관련 전문 부처인 보건복지부, 농림축산식품부, 환경부, 해양수산부, 제삼자 역할 국가 및 국제기구와 소통 전문 부처인 외교부 그리고 기타 주요 부처인 기획재정부, 교육부, 국방부 등과 비정부기구가 협력할 수 있는 ‘한반도 감염병 예방을 위한 조정기구’를 설립할 것을 제안하였다. 이에 대한 북한의 대응 부처로는 우리나라와 소통하는 통일전선부, 감염병 관련 전문 부처인 보건성, 농업성 및 수산성, 외무성 및 교육성 등이 의사소통에 참여할 수 있을 것으로 유추하였다. 의사소통의 시기는 평상시와 공중보건위기상황 시로 구분되어 평상시에는 공중보건위기상황을 예방·탐지·대응할 수 있는 역량을 갖출 수 있도록 제삼자 역할 국가 및 국제기구에서 정기적으로 의사소통하며, 공중보건위기상황 시에는 개성을 우선순위로 두되, 상황이 허락하지 않을 경우, 중국 및 러시아 등 시간 및 공간적인 접근성이 유리한 곳으로 정하여 협력을 위한 의사소통을 가지는 것을 제안하였다. 의사소통의 주제는 국제보건규약(2005) 이행을 측정할 수 있는 글로벌보건안보 지수의 평가항목을 감염병 예방·탐지·대응·기본적인 보건 인프라 및 사회적인 환경으로 구분하여 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라와 북한 간 70년 이상 지속적인 교류와 협력이 부재한 상황에서 제삼자 역할이 가능한 국가, 정부 간 국제기구 및 비정부 기구 등과 팀워크를 위해 우리나라와 북한의 새로운 의사소통 모형을 제안하였다. 이는 국민의 생명과 재산을 보호하기 위함으로, 향후 감염병의 범위를 확대하여 한반도의 보건안보 역량을 강화하는 데 기여하길 바란다. In 2019, an outbreak of African Swine Fever(ASF) on the Korean Peninsula lead to socioeconomic and environmental damage in the two Koreas. ASF outbreaks were reported to the World Organization for Animal Health(WOAH) in the order of occurrence in China, North Korea, and South Korea within intervals of several months. In the case of South Korea, ASF occurred mainly around the Military Demarcation Line, and has been expanding since into the south. If South Korea had preemptively acted to avoid the spread of ASF in North Korea via proper communication, the current levels of damage could have been avoided. However, South Korea and North Korea then did not, and do not now, have in place a communication system enabling a coordinated response. In order to solve these problems, this paper argues that establishing a continuous and regular communication system between South Korea and North Korea should be a major priority. The proposed communication model was devised by applying the third-party theory and teamwork theory. The scope of this study was limited to zoonotic diseases and transboundary diseases in animals. Domestic and international political and ideological factors on North Korea were left out of the discussion. For international standards of communication and cooperation between neighboring countries on zoonotic diseases and transboundary animal diseases, this study used World Health Organization(WHO) and WOAH data, and relevant research data for Africa and Southeast Asian cases. For North Korea, the Rodong Sinmun, academic journals, and periodicals from the beginning of the Kim Jong-un regime to 2019 were analyzed. First of all, zoonotic diseases and transboundary animal diseases were discussed. And, in the cases of Africa and Southeast Asia, challenges arising from communication and cooperation efforts between neighboring countries to prevent and respond to infectious diseases provided valuable lessons for the process of establishing a new communication model between South Korea and North Korea. Before constructing a communication model, international standards and their importance for communication between neighboring countries on infectious diseases in the areas of human and animal health were examined. Through this, it was possible to propose a new frame that shows how communication experts with in-depth knowledge and understanding of North Korean culture such as the Ministry of Unification and related experts from the field such as Ministries of Health; Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; and Oceans and Fisheries must participate in together when communicating with the North. Based on this criterion, this research analyzed the limitations of talks on infectious diseases between South Korea and North Korea, and points out that the existing communicative channels were not used even though South Korea and North Korea were able to maintain sufficient communication through global health platforms. In order to overcome these limitations and continuously communicate, third party and teamwork theory were applied to propose participants and places for communication between South and North Korea. The role of the third party was limited to the role of facilitating communication. A country with a common denominator between South Korea and North Korea, an intergovernmental international organization related to human health and animal health, and a consortium of domestic and foreign non-profit private organizations and health-related universities that continuously are in exchange with North Korea were proposed as third parties. For countries and institutions that cooperate as a third-party, it was emphasized that their clear motivation and incentives are given. And, an essential element to protect the Korean Peninsula from the threat of infectious diseases is cooperation between the domestic ministries within South Korea. In this regard, this study focuses on the Ministry of Unification, which specializes in communication with North Korea, which is well aware of North Korean society and culture, and the Ministry of Health and Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Ministry of Environment, and Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, which specialize in infectious diseases. This paper proposes the formation of a 'Coordination Organization for the Prevention of Infectious Diseases on the Korean Peninsula' under the Prime Minister's Office with other major ministries such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the Ministry of National Defense, non-governmental organizations, and research centers. In response, it was inferred that North Korea's response ministries include the United Front Department, which communicates with South Korea, the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, which are ministries specializing in infectious diseases, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, etc. will be able to participate in communication. Any communication should be made during peacetime and public health emergencies. Gaeseong is the best place to come together, but should this not be possible, a way to utilize countries and institutions that can cooperate as a third party must be sought. As for the topic of communication, the evaluation items of the Global Health Security Index, which can measure the implementation of the International Health Regulations (2005), were presented by dividing them into infectious disease prevention, detection, response, health infrastructure, and social environment. This study proposes a new communication model between South Korea and North Korea through the role of third parties such as partner countries, intergovernmental organizations, and non-governmental organizations, and the teamwork formed by them, in order to solve the issue of the lacking communication between the Koreas over more than 70 years. The aim is to protect the lives and property of people through continuous communication and cooperation between South and North Korea, which are responsible for health on the Korean Peninsula.

(A) Study of alternative approaches toward the denuclearization of North Korea

김태호 경희대학교 평화복지대학원 2016 국내석사

The unstable international situation by North Korea’s nuclear weapons development has been started long time ago. Although a lot of efforts had been done by the international community to resolve the issue so far, rather, the issue got more troublesome and became an insoluble problem since the North’s nuclear technology and strategy had been developed and changed significantly. Even though negotiation and sanction had been made in earnest in order to solve the issue after the first North Korean nuclear crisis, in conclusion, all the methods had been failed in breaking the North’s will of nuclear possession. As a matter of fact, after the end of Six Party Talks, the issue has been stuck literally and seems to be an impossibly difficult problem. In this situation, this study tries to come up with a new alternative in approaching the North’s nuclear issue more realistically. It tries to focus on the current Kim Jong-Un regime’s nuclear strategy, in addition, also tries to focus on the change of the North Korean society to draw possible approach in affecting the North’s nuclear policy. It also addresses other countries’ nuclear renunciation cases which had been done after the end of the Cold War era to draw major motives of denuclearization. Thus, this study tries to present a new alternative approach toward the denuclearization of North Korea by the analysis of the current North Korea and nuclear renunciation case studies. This new approach can be more realistic method in resolving the issue, which already has been a chronic problem for a long time, by focusing the North’s recent strategy and society.

Study of Deforestation in North Korea Using Google Earth Engine

남예경 서울대학교 대학원 2021 국내석사

Deforestation destroys forest ecosystems and reduces the functions of forests, such as reducing water storage and supply and air pollution. The degradation of forests due to deforestation harms climate change response and air quality. North Korea is one of the world's three deforested areas, and according to the research results of the National Institute of Forestry and Science, about 28% of the forest has been degraded from the 1990s until recently. However, as there are no official statistics, it is necessary to accurately identify the current situation for future restoration. Unlike general deforestation, North Korea was caused by a shortage of food and energy resources due to economic difficulties. Forests were cleared into fields for food supply, and extensive deforestation was accelerated by indiscriminate logging for use as an energy source due to a lack of coal. Although North Korea has recognized the problem of deforestation and implemented related policies, it has not been effectively implemented due to the continuing economic difficulties and deterioration of relations with South Korea. Since deforestation in North Korea has a socio-economic impact on North Korea and the environment on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia, restoration is urgently needed. In addition, it is important to know the exact current status and scale of deforestation for effective restoration project support when relations with Korea improve in the future. Since North Korea is currently inaccessible and it is impossible to determine the current situation through field surveys, remote sensing using satellite imagery is the most effective method. In addition, since deforestation is not a short-term phenomenon, but a long-term phenomenon, it is necessary to analyze it in multiple periods. Therefore, in this study, the status of deforestation in North Korea for 20 years from 2000 to 2020 after the 1990s, when deforestation in North Korea began to intensify, was identified, and two research hypotheses were established and confirmed. This study aims to enable it to be used as basic data for systematic planning when conducting a restoration project in the future. To this end, land cover classification is carried out using the pixel-based supervised classification random forest method through Google Earth Engine, a geographic information platform in the United States, and based on this, change detection is performed to determine the extent of devastation in an area. We looked at the progress and how much the forest area had changed. As a result of the analysis, the proportion of forests in North Korea decreased by about 11.5% from about 72.5% of the total area to about 61% from 2000 to 2010. On the other hand, the ratio of cropland and bareland increased by about 7% and about 2%, respectively, indicating that the deforestation caused by reckless logging and clearing is serious. The regions with the most changes were Pyeongan-do, Hamgyeong-do, and Gangwon-do, and the region with the least change was Hwanghae-do. During 2010-2020, the proportion of forests in North Korea increased by about 1% from about 61% to about 62%, and the cropland also increased by about 3%. When the full-scale forest restoration project began in North Korea, the ratio of bareland decreased by about 4% and the ratio of the forest increased slightly. Hwanghae-do and Gangwon-do, Hamgyeong-do showed the largest change, and Pyeongan-do show the least change. Gangwon-do, Hamgyeong-do, has seen many changes in common over the past 20 years, and the analysis results show that clearing and logging took place a lot in this area. 산림 황폐화는 산림 생태계를 파괴하며 물 저장 및 공급과 대기오염을 줄이는 등 산림이 가지고 있는 기능을 저하시킨다. 황폐화로 인한 산림의 기능 저하는 기후변화 대응 및 대기질 측면에서 부정적인 영향을 미치게 된다. 북한은 세계 3개 산림 황폐지역으로 1990년대부터 최근까지 산림의 약 28%가 황폐화되었다는 국립 산림 과학원의 연구결과가 있다. 하지만 공인된 통계는 없어 추후 복원을 위해서는 정확한 현황 파악이 필요한 실정이다. 일반적인 산림 황폐화와는 달리 북한은 경제적인 어려움으로 인한 식량 부족과 에너지 자원의 부족으로 발생하였다. 식량 공급을 위하여 산림은 밭으로 개간되었고, 석탄의 부족으로 인하여 에너지원으로 사용하기 위한 무분별한 벌목이 진행되어 광범위함 산림 황폐화가 가속화되었다. 산림 황폐화의 문제점은 북한에서도 인식하여 관련 정책을 진행하는 등의 노력을 하였지만, 지속되는 경제난과 한국과의 관계 악화로 인하여 효과적으로 이루어지지 않고 있다. 북한의 산림 황폐화는 북한뿐 아니라 한반도의 환경과 동북아에 사회 경제적으로 영향을 주고 있기 때문에 복원이 시급한 상황이며 추후 한국과의 관계가 개선되었을 때 효과적인 복원 사업 지원을 위해서는 정확한 현황과 규모를 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 북한은 현재 접근 불가 지역으로 현장조사를 통한 현황 파악이 불가능하기 때문에 위성영상을 사용한 원격탐사가 가장 효과적인 방법이다. 또한 산림 황폐화는 단기간에 나타나는 현상이 아니라 장기간에 걸쳐 진행되는 현상이기 때문에 다중시기로 분석할 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 북한의 산림 황폐화가 심화되기 시작한 1990년대 이후인 2000년부터 가장 최근인 2020년까지 20년 동안의 북한 산림 황폐화 현황을 파악하는 것을 기본으로 두 가지 연구 가설을 세워 리를 확인하고, 황폐화 진행이 얼마나 되었는지, 복원사업의 성과가 있었는지 살펴보고자 한다. 이를 통해 추후 복원 사업을 진행할 때, 체계적인 계획을 세울 수 있는 기초자료로 쓸 수 있도록 하는 것이 연구 목표이다. 이를 위하여 미국의 지리정보 플랫폼인 Google Earth Engine을 통하여 픽셀 기반 감독 분류 랜덤 포레스트(Random Forest) 방법을 사용하여 토지 피복 분류를 진행하고, 이를 기반으로 Change Detection(변화 감지)을 하여 어느 지역에서 황폐화가 진행되었는지, 산림 면적이 얼마나 변화하였는지 살펴보았다. 분석을 진행한 결과, 2000년-2010년 동안 북한의 산림 비율은 전체 면적의 약 72.5%에서 약 61%로 약 11.5% 정도 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 이와 반면에 농지와 나지의 비율은 각각 약 7%, 약 2% 증가한 것으로 나타나 무분별한 벌채와 개간으로 인한 산림 황폐화가 심각하다는 것을 보여준다. 변화가 가장 많이 나타난 지역은 평안도, 함경도, 강원도 지역으로 나타났으며, 변화가 가장 적게 나타난 지역은 황해도 지역으로 나타났다. 2010년-2020년 동안의 북한의 산림 비율은 약 61%에서 약 62%로 약 1%정도 증가하였으며, 농지도 약 3% 증가하였다. 이와 반면에 나지 비율은 약 4% 감소하여 본격적인 산림 복원 사업을 시작한 2016년 이후 산림 비율이 약간 상승하고 나지 비율이 감소하였으나 농지 비율이 증가한 것으로 보아 산림 복원이 성공적으로 이루어지지 않았으며, 무분별한 개간 또한 지속되고 있다는 것을 보여준다. 변화가 가장 크게 일어난 지역은 황해도, 함경도 강원도 지역으로 나타났으며, 변화가 가장 적게 일어난 지역은 평안도 지역으로 나타났다. 20년 동안 공통적으로 변화가 많이 일어난 지역은 함경도 강원도로, 분석결과를 통해 이 지역에서 개간과 벌채가 많이 일어났음을 알 수 있다.

Changes in North Korea's trade structure and revealed comparative advantage (RCA) after 1992

Choi, Jean Ah Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei U 2000 국내박사

The purpose of this research is to determine North Korea's prospective sectors or export development and trade. The study analyzes North Korea's trade structure, pattern, and performance in order to explore its emerging sectors and products for trade specialization. The focus of this study is on generating North Korea's comparative advantage, using the indices of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) based on trade statistics. It analyzes North Korea's "mirror statistics" between 1994 and 1997, by trading partner and commodity groups. It also compares the empirical results with previous study outcomes in order to examine any changes. The findings of this analysis are used to suggest specific items and sectors to which North Korea should reallocate production resources in order to develop them for international trade. The study elucidates the following questions: ● What are the leading export products of North Korea? ● What are the most important markets for North Korean exports? ● What are the goods in which North Korea has a revealed comparative advantage now? Has North Korea's RCA changed since 1992, following various macroeconomic shocks? If yes, how? ● Have there been any structural changes in the pattern of North Korea's comparative advantage? If yes, what? ● Are North Korea's RCAs natural resources-, standard technology-, or advanced technology-intensive? The main conclusions of this analysis are as follows: (1) North Korea's largest export sectors are clothing, electronic components, fresh food, and chemicals; (2) North Korea has a comparative advantage in animal and vegetable products and raw materials and has a comparative disadvantage in machinery; (3) North Korea's previous disadvantage in goods using natural resources in production changed to a comparative advantage after 1992. This result can be interpreted as a backward movement in North Korea's industrialization due to the economic hardship that North Korea has suffered; and (4) North Korea's comparative advantage in goods using standard technology has been declining since 1992. This result also implies that North Korea's industrial sector is deteriorating. The paper argues that North Korea will realize gains from trade when it engages in specialization and trade. It provides both the commodities, which North Korea should stop producing, and the ones that North Korea should develop more for export promotion.

(An) Evaluation of Sanctions Regime against North Korea : Failures and Successes

최성진 경희대학교 평화복지대학원 2018 국내석사

North Korea’s nuclear issue is urgent in that the country has rapidly advanced their nuclear and missile capabilities. Since the North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, UN sanctions and unilateral sanctions have been imposed in response to each provocation to date. A sanction is a tool of coercive measure which pressures a targeted state. A number of sanctions have been imposed on North Korea from around the world. In spite of the sanctions regime, the international community has not resolved the North Korean nuclear issue. Also, North Korea has been constrained to do business with other states or secure necessities and resources to advance their nuclear and missile program However, the international community has failed to coerce North Korea to change its policies or to go back to the negotiating table. The sanctions regime is divided into the three phases and each phase has different aspects. The first phase covers North Korea’s first to third nuclear tests (2006-2015.) The second phase ranges from the fourth to the fifth nuclear test (2016.) The third phase deals with the sixth nuclear test (2017). The dividing point between the first and second phase is the range and depth of the sanctions. The first phase was mostly limited to North Korea’s WMD. However, in the second phase, sanctions were widely expanded on and strengthened. They included not only sectoral ban on minerals, but also on all arms. In the third phase, which signals the beginning of the Trump administration, UN sanctions have been further strengthened. Also, the focus is to prevent North Korea from gaining hard currency through trade. In accordance to each phase, unilateral sanctions were also imposed by individual countries. The sanctions regime has been ratcheted up according to North Korea’s repeated provocations on paper, the effectiveness of it unclear. This is because of the politics between permanent members in UN Security Council. Also, China and Russia are the states that backup North Korea. In this sense, the international community has tried to pressurize the two states into playing a more active role. In particular, the US has given pressure to resolve the nuclear issue including secondary sanctions. It is clear that sanctions are useful to coercive diplomacy. However, sanctions should not be an end in themselves. In the bigger picture for the denuclearization and ultimate reunification of North and South Korea, the role of sanctions is crucial. Also, inflow of information into North Korea, North Korea’s openness to market and consecutive personnel exchanges are necessary long-term goals.