This study examines the state of the security complexes on the Korean peninsula during the post-cold war era to determine what variables influence the structure most and to forecast its future direction. To do this, this study clarifies some of the ma...
This study examines the state of the security complexes on the Korean peninsula during the post-cold war era to determine what variables influence the structure most and to forecast its future direction. To do this, this study clarifies some of the major concepts and then invokes the regional security complex theory (RSCT), developed by Buzan and Wæver, as its analytical framework. According to RSCT, the security structure on the Korean peninsula originated with the Korean War and represents a "conflict formation" because of such factors as its armistice system, enmity, and alliance, among others. This structure, which has been taking the alliance system as its main component part, also has shown properties of "defensive confrontation," "balance" and "two layers of security."
After the cold war, the social construction between the relevant actors in the upper layer appear to be not friendly but not hostile. There are, however, not only friendly relations but also not-friendly-but-not-hostile ones and hostile ones between the upper layer's actors (the United States, China, Japan, and Russia) and the lower layer's actors (ROK or South Korea and DPRK or North Korea). The confrontation which had existed during the cold-war era is now becoming ambiguous. In the lower layer, through 40 years' of competition between North and South Korea, an "out-of-balance" situation has developed in terms of their economies and militaries, as both compete with each other for legitimacy.
With the coming of the post-cold war era, a number of crises― including the first and the second North Korean nuclear crisis and the crisis of the armistice system ― have been threatening the peace and stability of the region. It can be said that three crises originated from the same structural background, although each developed in a different way. The first nuclear crisis was resolved through the signing of the 1994 Agreed Framework between the United States and the DPRK. However, the crisis of the armistice system and the second nuclear crisis broke out because the unbalanced structure had not been adjusted toward a balanced one, which can now only be adjusted via diplomatic normalization of relations between North Korea and the United States.
The resolution of crises is important to regional stability and peace. But how to resolve them could bring about great changes to the relations shared between some of the actors, which in turn may harm other actors' interests in the region and lead them to lean toward more conservative policies. Through investigation of the crisis resolution bargaining process (including the first nuclear crisis, Four-party Talks, and Six-party Talks), one can discover that the actual bargainers have been the two Koreas and the United States. China has been continuing to play an arbitrator's role ― a role that neither Russia nor Japan could play ― which means that mutually acceptable policies between the United States and the two Koreas are the main variables to the adjustment of the security structure on the Korean peninsula.
The important preconditions for the Korea peninsula to free itself from conflict is normalization of DPRK relations with the United States and Japan, and reconciliation between North and South Korea. Whether or not these preconditions are met will also determine if the region can exit the stage of conflict formation and enter a stage of regional security regime via the stages of stable conflict formation and conflict resolution.