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다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of urbanization and climate change on urban flood damage, and to establish a new correlation based on theoretical considerations. Previous studies on the impact on flood damages assume that the primary linear function is the sum of urbanization(impervious area), the rainfall variable and socio-economic factors. This study started from the criticism of this previous study. From a critical point of view, I propose an approach to the role of regulatory variables based on the definition of socio-economic factors as well as hydrological theory that urban flood damage is affected by impervious areas and rainfall, as a new approach. In summary, I tried to establish the theoretical relationship between impervious areas and rainfall to flood damage, and to derive a new correlation for the moderating the effect of social vulnerability variables. This study establishes two hypotheses from the viewpoint of the theoretical review and the critical point of the previous study as follows.
Research hypothesis 1: The impact of urbanization and rainfall on urban flood damage is an exponential relationship model. Urban flood damage will increase exponentially with increasing urbanization and rainfall.
Research hypothesis 2: Socio-economic factors of cities will play a role in controlling variables to increase or decrease damage in case of urban flooding.

Based on the above hypothesis, this study complied 20 years data from 104 cities, counties and districts that experienced urbanization. The panel analysis is a dynamic method of analyzing how the characteristics of interest are changing with the passage of time by combining the recent cross-section with a time series. In this study, the autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, which are the basic assumptions of the regression model, were proactively tested. As a result of the test, the panel GLS model was preferentially used because it did not satisfy both basic assumptions. In addition, since the analysis of basic statistics shows that more than 50% of urban flood damage tends to be offset to zero, the panel tobit model was used together to prevent an underestimation of the coefficient value.
The results of this study are summarized as follows. The panel GLS model and the panel tobit model were applied to 104 cities, counties, and districts with high urbanization, respectively. As a result, the panel GLS model showed that when rainfall increased by 10%, urban flood damage increased by about 14%. And when impervious areas increased by 10%, urban flood damage increased by about 20%. As a result of applying the panel tobit model, urban flood damage increases by 29% when the impervious area increases by 10%. And when rainfall increases by 10%, urban flood damage increases by 44%. In this study, the panel tobit model was finally adopted and Hypothesis 1 was proven sufficiently when it was considered that the significance of the variability of rainfall and impervious areas and the fit of the model were high. In other words, the effect of urbanization and rainfall on urban flood damage was exponential, and it can be concluded that urban flood damage increases sharply when urbanization and rainfall increases.
In the second hypothesis of this study, the panel GLS model and the panel tobit model using socioeconomic factors as moderating variable effects were used to find that the fit of the model was high and the significance of each variable was significantly high. It is analyzed how urban flood damage increases as the number of the vulnerable population under 5 years of age is increases. The results for the vulnerable population under age 5 are consistent with previous studies. As a result, the second hypothesis that socioeconomic factors play a role as a moderator variable to control urban flood damage in the event of a disaster, was satisfied.
The theoretical implications that can be presented through this study are as follows. First, urban flood damage increases exponentially as urbanization and rainfall increases. Second, Socioeconomic factors act as moderator variables of urban flood damage, which can increase or reduce urban flood damage. Methodologically, regression analysis should be preceded by a test of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. If the rate at which the dependent variable is zero is high, it is preferable to use a tobit model.
In addition, this study used the results of the analysis to predict future urban flood damage trends. Urban planning scenarios are assumed to be “high carbon climate non adaptive society” and “low carbon climate adaptive society”. As a result, it is estimated that the urban flood damage of future cities will increase by up to 500% more than in the case of “high carbon climate non adaptive society”. In “low carbon climate adaptive society”, urban flood damage was reduced by 20-30%.
Based on this, three policy suggestions were presented. First, in order to realize a low-carbon climate change adaptive society, a priority should be placed on bringing about a change in awareness in the field of urban planning. Changes in perceptions should be accompanied by a change in perceptions from public officials to citizens to formulate and implement policies. In addition, goals and values for implementing a society that can acclimate well to climate change should be prioritized for the long-term planning of urban planning, and action plans to support this should be taken.
Second, policy is needed to improve socioeconomic factors. Disaster safety education is a typical measure to improve the adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups. Systematic and effective disaster safety education is expected to change the knowledge, behavior and attitudes about disaster safety. I propose a plan to enhance the resilience of the region as another adaptive capacity improvement plan. To do this, it should be understood what
resources the community has in order to improve disaster preparedness in the region.
Finally, I propose reduction targets for municipalities or countries to improve water cycle for urban flood mitigation. In this study, I propose establishing a reduction goal of 20-30%. In addition, I would like to present a policy plan that can be utilized in urban planning along with future target amounts in order to expand the applicability of policy. In this study, we propose a plan that can be included in the zoning or district unit plans, which are a strong regulatory measure, to expand the participation of private businesses.

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