Canadian energy : supply and demand 1993-2010

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• List of Tables = ⅷ
• List of Figures = ⅹ
• Abbreviations of Names and Terms = xv
• Units = xviii
• Conversion Factors-Metric Units to Imperial Units = xix
• Gross Energy Content Factors = xx
• Foreword = xxi
• 1. Introduction = 1-1
• 2. Macroeconomic Assumptions = 2-1
• 2.1 International Economic Environment = 2-1
• 2.2 Canadian Economic Outlook = 2-1
• 2.3 The Goods and Services Balance = 2-3
• 2.4 Sectoral Breakdown = 2-5
• 2.5 The Regional Outlook = 2-7
• 3. Energy Prices = 3-1
• 3.1 International Crude Petroleum Prices = 3-1
• 3.1.1 History of World Oil Markets = 3-1
• 3.1.2 Sustainable Range = 3-2
• 3.2 Natural Gas Fieldgate Prices = 3-6
• 3.3 Burner Tip Prices = 3-6
• 3.3.1 Petroleum Product Prices = 3-6
• 3.3.2 Natural Gas = 3-7
• 3.3.3 Electricity Prices = 3-8
• 3.3.4 Coal Prices = 3-8
• 3.3.5 Alternative and Renewable Energy = 3-8
• 3.4 Efficiency Adjusted End Use Prices = 3-9
• 4. Canadian Energy Demand = 4-1
• 4.1 Introduction = 4-1
• 4.2 Historical Trends = 4-1
• 4.3 Issues and Uncertainties = 4-2
• 4.4 Total End Use Energy Demand : Overview of the Projections = 4-3
• 4.5 End Use by Sector = 4-3
• 4.5.1 Residential Sector = 4-3
• 4.5.1.1 Determinants of Residential Energy Demand = 4-5
• 4.5.1.2 Trends in Energy Intensity = 4-7
• 4.5.1.3 Government and Utility Sponsored Programs = 4-7
• 4.5.1.4 Residential Energy Demand by Fuel Type = 4-7
• 4.5.1.5 Projections = 4-9
• 4.5.2 Commercial Sector = 4-11
• 4.5.2.1 Determinants of Commercial Energy Demand = 4-11
• 4.5.2.2 Trends in Energy Intensity = 4-12
• 4.5.2.3 Government and Utility Sponsored Programs = 4-12
• 4.5.2.4 Commercial Energy Demand by Fuel Type = 4-12
• 4.5.2.5 Projections = 4-13
• 4.5.3 Industrial Sector = 4-16
• 4.5.3.1 Determinants of Energy Demand = 4-16
• 4.5.3.2 Industrial Demand by Fuel Type = 4-17
• 4.5.3.3 Government and Utility Sponsored Programs = 4-19
• 4.5.3.4 Projections = 4-19
• 4.5.3.5 Energy Demand by Industry = 4-21
• 4.5.4 Transportation Sector = 4-27
• 4.5.4.1 Car Energy Demand = 4-28
• 4.5.4.2 Truck Energy Demand = 4-30
• 4.5.4.3 Aviation Energy Demand = 4-32
• 4.5.4.4 Railway Energy Demand = 4-32
• 4.5.4.5 Marine Energy Demand = 4-33
• 4.5.4.6 Total Transportation Sector Energy Demand Projection = 4-33
• 4.5.5 Non-Energy Hydrocarbon Use = 4-34
• 4.5.5.1 Petrochemical Feedstock Production Outlook = 4-35
• 4.5.5.2 Asphalt, Lubes and Greases, and Naphtha = 4-37
• 4.6 End Use Energy Demand by Region = 4-37
• 4.6.1 Atlantic = 4-38
• 4.6.2 Qu$$e'$$bec = 4-39
• 4.6.3 Ontario = 4-40
• 4.6.4 Manitoba = 4-41
• 4.6.5 Saskatchewan = 4-42
• 4.6.6 Alberta = 4-43
• 4.6.7 British Columbia, and the Yukon and Northwest Territories = 4-44
• 4.7 Primary Energy Demand by Fuel = 4-45
• 4.7.1 Primary Demand for Oil = 4-45
• 4.7.2 Primary Demand for Natural Gas = 4-46
• 4.7.3 Primary Demand for Natural Gas Liquids = 4-47
• 4.7.4 Primary Demand for Coal = 4-48
• 4.7.5 Primary Demand for Hydro and Nuclear Sources for Electricity Generation = 4-49
• 4.7.6 Total Primary Demand = 4-49
• 4.8 Concluding Comments = 4-50
• Annex Ⅰ Government and Utility Sponsored Programs = 4-52
• 5. Electricity = 5-1
• 5.1 Introduction = 5-1
• 5.2 Background = 5-1
• 5.3 Domestic Electricity Demand = 5-2
• 5.4 Firm Trade = 5-4
• 5.4.1 Firm International Trade = 5-4
• 5.4.2 Firm Interprovincial Trade = 5-5
• 5.5 Generating Capacity and Electrical Energy Production = 5-5
• 5.5.1 Newfoundland and Labrador = 5-7
• 5.5.2 Prince Edward Island = 5-8
• 5.5.3 Nova Scotia = 5-8
• 5.5.4 New Brunswick = 5-11
• 5.5.5 Qu$$e'$$bec = 5-11
• 5.5.6 Ontario = 5-14
• 5.5.7 Manitoba = 5-14
• 5.5.8 Saskatchewan = 5-17
• 5.5.9 Alberta = 5-17
• 5.5.10 British Columbia = 5-20
• 5.10.11 Yukon = 5-22
• 5.10.12 Northwest Territories = 5-22
• 5.6 Interruptible and Total Trade = 5-22
• 5.6.1 Interruptible Trade = 5-22
• 5.6.1.1 Interruptible Exports = 5-26
• 5.6.1.2 Interruptible Interprovincial Trade = 5-27
• 5.6.2 Total Trade = 5-27
• 5.7 Enhanced Cooperation Case = 5-31
• 5.8 Summary of Supply and Demand of Electricity in Canada = 5-33
• 5.9 Summary of Primary Energy Demand for Electricity Production in Canada = 5-37
• 6. Natural Gas = 6-1
• 6.1 Approach = 6-1
• 6.2 Natural Gas Resources = 6-2
• 6.2.1 Natural Gas Resource Base = 6-2
• 6.2.1.1 Approach = 6-2
• 6.2.2 Canadian Marketable Gas Resources = 6-6
• 6.2.2.1 Initial Discovered Conventional Gas = 6-6
• 6.2.2.2 Undiscovered Gas Resources = 6-8
• 6.2.2.3 Unconventional Resources = 6-9
• 6.2.2.4 Summary = 6-11
• 6.2.3 United States Marketable Natural Gas Resources = 6-12
• 6.2.3.1 Discovered Gas Resources = 6-12
• 6.2.3.2 Undiscovered Gas Resources = 6-13
• 6.2.3.3 Unconventional Resources = 6-14
• 6.2.3.4 Summary = 6-15
• 6.2.4 Mexican Natural Gas Marketable Resources = 6-15
• 6.2.4.1 Discovered Conventional Resources = 6-15
• 6.2.4.2 Undiscovered Resources = 6-15
• 6.2.4.3 Summary = 6-16
• 6.3 Technology and Gas Supply Cost = 6-16
• 6.4 Supply Cost = 6-18
• 6.4.1 Natural Gas Supply Cost = 6-18
• 6.4.2 Inputs for Supply Cost Calculation = 6-19
• 6.4.3 Resulting Supply Cost Curves = 6-21
• 6.4.4 Supply Costs-Current and High Technology Cases = 6-23
• 6.5 NARG Assumptions = 6-24
• 6.5.1 Backstop Price = 6-24
• 6.5.2 Liquefied Natural Gas = 6-24
• 6.5.3 Constraints on Switching to Oil = 6-24
• 6.5.4 Transmission, Distribution and Storage = 6-25
• 6.5.5 Canadian Demand = 6-27
• 6.5.6 U. S. Demand = 6-27
• 6.6 Results and Analysis = 6-29
• 6.6.1 Preamble = 6-29
• 6.6.2 Current Technology vs High Technology = 6-30
• 6.6.2.1 Fieldgate Prices = 6-30
• 6.6.2.2 Canadian Production = 6-30
• 6.6.2.3 United States Production = 6-32
• 6.6.2.4 Canadian Exports = 6-34
• 6.6.2.5 Imports to Canada = 6-36
• 6.6.2.6 Canadian Fuel Switching = 6-36
• 6.6.2.7 U. S. Demand = 6-36
• 6.6.2.8 U. S. Fuel Switching = 6-37
• 6.6.3 Comparisons With Other Projections = 6-38
• 6.6.3.1 Organizations Surveyed = 6-38
• 6.6.3.2 Summary of Assumptions and Results = 6-40
• 6.6.3.3 Summary = 6-42
• 6.7 Sensitivities = 6-42
• 6.7.1 Introduction = 6-42
• 6.7.2 Sensitivity Case 1 : High U. S. Electrical Demand = 6-43
• 6.7.2.1 Comparison to Current Technology Base Case = 6-43
• 6.7.2.2 Comparison to High Technology Base Case = 6-43
• 6.7.2.3 Discussion : Sensitivity Case 1-High U. S. Demand = 6-44
• 6.7.3 Sensitivity Case 2 : New Low Cost Gas Supply = 6-47
• 6.7.3.1 Highlights of Results Compared to Current Technology Base Case = 6-47
• 6.7.3.2 Highlights of Results Compared to High Technology Base Case = 6-49
• 6.7.3.3 Discussion : Sensitivity Case 2-New Low Cost Gas Supply = 6-49
• 6.8 Productive Capacity of Canadian Natural Gas = 6-51
• 6.8.1 Approach = 6-51
• 6.8.2 Modelling Framework = 6-51
• 6.8.3 Productive Capacity from Established Reserves Additions = 6-56
• 6.8.4 Productive Capacity from Reserves Additions = 6-56
• 6.8.5 Total Productive Capacity = 6-57
• 6.8.6 Natural Gas Supply and Demand = 6-59
• 6.8.7 Drilling Activity = 6-60
• 6.8.8 Observations = 6-61
• 6.9 Export Impact Assessment = 6-63
• 6.9.1 Introduction = 6-63
• 6.9.2 Results-Current Technology = 6-64
• 6.9.3 Results-High Technology = 6-66
• 6.9.4 Export Impact Assessment Summary = 6-72
• 6.9.5 Export Impact Assessment Conclusions = 6-76
• 6.10 Concluding Comments = 6-76
• 7. Crude Oil and Equivalent = 7-1
• 7.1 Introduction = 7-1
• 7.1.1 Outline = 7-1
• 7.1.2 Alternative Supply Cases = 7-2
• 7.1.3 Oil Prices and Uncertainty = 7-2
• 7.1.4 Resource Base and Uncertainty = 7-3
• 7.1.5 Recent Production and Impact of New Technologies = 7-6
• 7.1.6 Supply Cost Methodology = 7-8
• 7.2 Conventional Light Oil in the WCSB = 7-10
• 7.2.1 Resources = 7-10
• 7.2.2 Supply Costs = 7-12
• 7.2.3 Reserves Additions = 7-14
• 7.2.4 Projected Field Supply = 7-17
• 7.3 Conventional Heavy Oil in the WCSB = 7-18
• 7.3.1 Resources = 7-18
• 7.3.2 Supply Costs = 7-19
• 7.3.3 Light / Heavy Oil Price Differentials = 7-20
• 7.3.4 Reserves Additions = 7-21
• 7.3.5 Projected Field Supply = 7-22
• 7.4 Frontier Light Oil = 7-22
• 7.4.1 Resources = 7-23
• 7.4.2 Supply Costs = 7-23
• 7.4.3 Reserves Additions = 7-26
• 7.4.4 Projected Field Supply = 7-26
• 7.5 Bitumen from Alberta Oilsands = 7-27
• 7.5.1 Resources = 7-27
• 7.5.2 Supply Costs = 7-27
• 7.5.3 Projected Field Supply = 7-30
• 7.6 Pentanes Plus = 7-31
• 7.7 Summary of Total Oil Supply = 7-32
• 7.7.1 Field Supply-Technology Cases = 7-32
• 7.7.2 Field Supply-Price Sensitivity Cases = 7-34
• 7.7.3 Blending and Upgrading = 7-35
• 7.7.4 Available Refinery Supply = 7-36
• 7.8 Refinery Balances and Oil Supply / Demand Profiles = 7-37
• 7.8.1 Crude Oil Pipelines = 7-37
• 7.8.2 Refinery Balances = 7-39
• 7.8.3 Crude Oil Supply / Demand Profiles = 7-42
• 7.9 Summary and Conclusions = 7-47
• 8. Natural Gas Liquids = 8-1
• 8.1 Overview of the Canadian NGL Production and Transportation Infrastructure = 8-1
• 8.1.1 Extraction and Processing Facilities = 8-1
• 8.1.2 Intraprovincial, Interprovincial and Export Delivery Systems = 8-1
• 8.2 NGL Supply-General = 8-3
• 8.3 NGL Product Supply, Demand and Balances = 8-6
• 8.3.1 Ethane = 8-7
• 8.3.2 Propane = 8-7
• 8.3.3 Butanes = 8-8
• 8.3.4 Pentanes Plus = 8-10
• 8.4 Concluding Comments = 8-10
• 9. Coal = 9-1
• 9.1 Quality and Types of Coal = 9-1
• 9.2 Reserves and Resources = 9-1
• 9.3 Prices = 9-3
• 9.4 Domestic Coal Demand = 9-4
• 9.4.1 Thermal Coal Demand = 9-5
• 9.4.2 Metallurgical Coal Demand = 9-6
• 9.5 Coal Exports = 9-6
• 9.5.1 Metallurgical Coal Exports = 9-7
• 9.5.2 Thermal Coal Exports = 9-10
• 9.6 Coal Imports = 9-11
• 9.7 Coal Production = 9-12
• 9.8 Coal Production = 9-12
• 10. Alternative and Renewable Energy = 10-1
• 10.1 Introduction = 10-1
• 10.2 Energy Supply Costs, Prices and Technological Development = 10-2
• 10.2.1 Wind = 10-2
• 10.2.2 Solar = 10-3
• 10.2.2.1 Passive Solar = 10-3
• 10.2.2.2 Active Solar = 10-3
• 10.2.2.3 Photovoltaic Systems = 10-4
• 10.2.3 Small Hydro = 10-5
• 10.2.4 Biomass = 10-6
• 10.2.5 Geothermal = 10-6
• 10.2.6 Ground Source Heat Pumps(GSHPs) = 10-7
• 10.2.7 Tidal = 10-8
• 10.2.8 General Comments = 10-8
• 10.3 End Use Consumption = 10-8
• 10.4 Electricity Generation = 10-10
• 10.5 Primary Energy Consumption = 10-10
• 10.6 Concluding Comments = 10-10
• 11. Implications of Energy Projections for Atmospheric Emissions = 11-1
• 11.1 Emissions Uncertainties = 11-1
• 11.2 Consultation Findings = 11-1
• 11.3 Energy-related Emissions = 11-1
• 11.4 Emissions Calculation Methodology = 11-2
• 11.5 Atmospheric Emissions = 11-3
• 11.5.1 Greenhouse Gases = 11-3
• 11.5.2 Acid Forming Gases = 11-7
• 11.5.3 Volatile Organic Compounds and Ozone = 11-9
• 11.6 Emission Projections = 11-10
• 11.6.1 Current Tech Case = 11-10
• 11.6.2 High Tech Case = 11-12
• 11.6.3 Enhanced Cooperation Case = 11-12
• 11.7 Summary and Conclusions = 11-13
• 12. Sources and Uses of Energy, Summary and Conclusions = 12-1
• 12.1 Canadian Energy Supply, Demand and Trade = 12-1
• 12.2 Summary and Conclusions = 12-3
• Glossary = G-1