지속가능한 사회-생태적 회복력을 평가하기 위한 통합적 접근: 춘천 사례를 중심으로 = An Integrative Approach to Assessing Sustainable Socio-Ecological Resilience in Chuncheon area

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Given the increasing challenges posed by climate change, urbanization and resource demands, there is a growing focus on the need to promote socio-ecological resilience. This study takes an approach to assess the socio-ecological resilience of Chuncheon City in South Korea. It employs tools and methods to examine how environmental factors interact to shape the area's ability to adapt and thrive amidst changing pressures. Our goal is to gain an understanding of its current environmental situation and prospects concerning socio-ecological resilience. The analytical method includes an investigation of land use dynamics, water quality trends, and ecosystem service patterns, which is enhanced by advanced models such as Agro-IBIS, MODFLOW, SWAT, and THMP. In addition, the study employs a participatory method, involving stakeholders to improve understanding of local dynamics and what is needed. Therefore, SWAT analysis has already yielded preliminary results, suggesting fluctuating nitrogen, suspended particles, and phosphorus loadings within certain ranges from -4.5 to +2.3%, -5.8 to +29.0%, and +3.7 to +17.4%, respectively. Furthermore, forecasts predict significant shifts in evapotranspiration (+3.2% to +17.2%), streamflow (-9.1% to +8.1%), and soil moisture (0.1% to 0.7%) between 2040 and 2080. Additionally, projections of potential climate changes indicate temperatures will increase by 1.3 to 2.1°C, and precipitation will rise by 31 to 61mm by the end of the century (under SSP126 and SSP585). These findings form the cornerstone of the study's conclusions and emphasize the importance of including stakeholders in the development of effective resilience solutions. This study, which is still in progress, is expected to create a framework that not only assesses the many facets of socio-ecological resilience but also offers helpful suggestions for managing environmental pathways toward sustainable development and assisting stakeholders, policy-making to successfully address upcoming issues along with enhancing sustainability and resilience in other similar areas.