미국 헤게모니와 동아시아 지역체계의 공진화 = Co-evolution of U.S. Hegemony and East Asian Regional System

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to explain the regional dynamics of East Asia through the coevolution of U.S. hegemony and East Asian regional system. The hegemonic capability of the U.S. was a decisive factor that formed and transformed East Asian regional system; however, the long-term, complicated interaction with East Asia also had a significant effect to the trajectory of U.S. hegemony. In the 1970s and 1980s, there was a U.S. attempt to reverse its hegemonic decline which ironically led to a reaction of the East Asian countries and ultimately an expansion of East Asian regional system. In the 1990s, U.S. hegemony was restored through its monetary and financial power and the Cold War came to an end. As a consequence of the U.S. global strategy that emerged in the 1990s, the East Asian crisis occurred in the late 1990s. Since the 2000s, However, East Asia has played a pivotal role in supporting the U.S. monetary and financial power with the mechanism of the exports-dollar recycling and has emerged as a key region of international politics. For this reason, the U.S. has shifted the axis of its global strategy to East Asia since the financial crisis of 2007-08, which is a critical turning point of the U.S. hegemony revealing contradictions of it. In response, China initiated a new plan to expand autonomy from the United States and strengthen its regional and global influence. The future of the East Asian regional system, which will be determined by the dynamics of US-China relations, is most important variable that will affect the path of the global system as well as U.S. hegemony.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 미국 헤게모니와 동아시아 지역체계의 공진화라는 관점에서 동아시아 지역체계의 역사적 변화를 분석하고, 향후 진로를 전망한다. 특히 통화·금융 권력을 토대로 한 미국 헤게모니의 변화가 동아시아 지역체계의 진화 경로에미친 영향, 그리고 동아시아 지역체계의 성장이 미국 헤게모니의 진화 경로에 미친 영향에 주목한다. 1970-80년대에 나타난 지역체계의 발전과 팽창은 헤게모니쇠퇴를 역전시키려는 미국의 일방주의적 시도에 대한 지역적 대응의 결과였다.
1990년대 후반 지역체계의 위기는 미국 헤게모니가 통화·금융 권력을 중심으로부활하고 냉전질서가 붕괴되면서 나타난 미국의 세계전략 변화의 산물이었다. 그러나 지역의 위기는 지역의 해체로 귀결되지 않았고, 오히려 독자적인 지역체계를 확립하려는 흐름이 강화되었다. 특히 중국을 중심으로 재편된 지역경제는 수출달러 환류 메커니즘 속에서 2000년대 미국 헤게모니의 변화에서 핵심 역할을하게 되었다. 이 때문에 미국은 2007~08년 금융위기를 계기로 헤게모니의 모순의 폭발한 이후 세계전략의 중심축을 동아시아로 이동했다. 반면 중국은 미국 중심의 국제정치경제질서 하에서 발전을 도모하던 전략을 수정해 지역체계, 나아가세계체계 차원에서 영향력을 강화하고 독립성을 확대하고자 하는 시도를 전개하기 시작했다. 미중관계의 동학이 만들어 낼 지역체계의 미래는 미국 헤게모니는물론 세계체계의 진로를 결정할 가장 중요한 변수가 될 것이다.

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