공공임대주택이 신혼부부 출산간격에 미치는 영향과 정책적 시사점

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to examine the effect of public rental housing on the fertility of residents related to an increase in the ultra-low fertility phenomenon. Therefore, this study focused on changes in the first and second childbirth intervals of newlyweds who live in public rental housing in Seoul. The “Survey on Housing Conditions for Youth and Newlyweds in Seoul Public Rental Housing” was conducted in 2020, and responses that were relevant to the study were used as data. The PWP-GT (Prentice, Williams & Peterson-Gap Time) model was used for analyzing recurring survival data. “Time required to move in” and “occupancy status” were selected as key variables to understand how residing in public rental housing affects fertility. The composition of the analysis model was divided into an overall model and event-specific effect (1st birth & 2nd birth) model. Resultingly, we found: First, the delayed move-in to public rental housing caused a catch-up effect among non-resident households; in contrast, it had a negative cause of delay in childbirth among public rental households. Second, it was discovered that most couples who moved into public rental housing had their first child before moving in; however, couples who gave birth to a second child after moving in experienced rapidly shortened birth intervals when the effect changed over time. This means that couples moving into public rental housing change their childbearing behavior after moving in, and by implication, moving into public rental housing can be a starting point for positive changes in the living environment of residents.