長期의 豫測, 計劃 및 管理를 위한 時系列分析 = A Time-Series Analysis for An Anticipation, Planning and Management in a Long-term Program

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this article is to examine the classical methodology in the time-series analysis in the economic and the business administration. In other words this research has been concerned with the methodologaical consideration in classifing and analyzing the Movement in data of the time-series analysis. Weekly selling data in a certain enterprise, monthly selling data in a certain industry and annual employment data of manufacturing workers in a nation will be an appropriate resource for the time-series analysis.
With the results of a statistical analysis over the movement for the said data in the past, the researcher is to determine the following two items:
1. To formulate a movement pattern in the past and in a certain movement for the given time-series data.
2. To set up a goal or a direction for a future movement pattern. Business administrators should make best use of this goal or direction in the process of an anticipation that constitutes a pre-requisite step in the planning and managing course of business administration.
As one of comprehensible ways on an effective role of the anticipation in business administration, this study attempts to describe (ⅰ)a simple examination an various problems of the anticipation, (ⅱ) on particular methods in the time-series analysis and (ⅲ)finally, effectively applicable ways of the time-serise analysis for the business anticipation, planning and business management. The time-series data to be utilized for this purpose should be comparatively successive and long-time ones. That's because an identical material with a similar method through the continieous duration of time.
It is however unfortunate for the researcher to be unable to find any appropriate time-series data or examples around us in Korea. This forces the researcher to utilize the data or examples collected from the American academic circles.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 1. 槪要
• 2. 豫測에 關한 展望
• 2-1 經營者의 責任으로서의 豫測問題
• 2-2 經營者에 의한 豫測의 利用
• 2-3 豫測에 따르는 위험성
• 2-4 豫測에 의한 時系列分析의 利用과限界
• 3. 時系列 데이타의 調整
• 3-1 一貫性
• 3-2 測定單位
• 4. 長期趨勢分析
• 4-1 長期趨勢
• 4-2 趨勢曲線
• 5. 經濟및 經營活動에서의 長期趨勢 패턴
• 5-1 成長曲線
• 5-2 半數對的直線趨勢
• 5-3 算術的直線趨勢
• 6. 分析과 豫測에 있어서의 長期趨勢 槪念의 利用
• 6-1 長期趨勢의 投影
• 7. 趨勢曲線의 推定과 投影
• 7-1 趨勢曲線을 目測으로 推定하는 方法
• 7-2 趨勢曲線을 數學的으로 推定하는 方法
• 7-3 趨勢曲線을 投影하는 意味
• 7-4 豫測의 信賴限界
• 8. 要約