선거 경합도와 정당 파워가 정부정책에 미치는영향에 대한 연구: 미국 보육정책 분석을 중심으로 = The Impact of Electoral Competition and Party Strength on Childcare Policy in the United States

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Purpose of this paper is to examine whether electoral competition, party strength and the
interaction between those factor produce regulatory policy change in childcare and if so, what direction
such the policy change takes. For empirical testing, several indicators are constructed based on childcare regulation documentations as well as political, economic, and other social data from 1980 to 2005 and 153 the model is estimated by pooled times series with panel corrected standard errors. The empirical results indicate that electoral competition is critical factor influencing the relationship between party and government policy. When electoral competition is light, the direction of government policy is
significantly determined by a party's strength in the state congress and the policy direction is consistent with ideological preference of Party. However, when electoral competition becomes competitive, Party moderate strategically their ideological preference on the policy to attract more support from voters.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 선거 경합도, 정당 파워, 그리고 이 두 요소간의 상호작용에 의해 정부의 정책이 어떻게 변화하는지 미국 사회복지정책의 일환인 보육정책의 사례에 적용하여 분석하는 데 목적이 있다. 연구를 경험적으로 분석하고자 1983년부터 2005년까지의 미국 주 정부의 보육규제자료 및 정치, 경제, 사회에 관한 종합적인 자료를 수집하였으며 이를 시계열분석의 일환인 time series with panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) 을 통해 분석하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 선거 경합정도는 정당과 정부정책간의 관계에 있어 상당한 영향력을 행사하는 것으로 나타났는데, 선거 경합도가 낮은 경우 정부보육규제의 방향은 상하양원에서 어떤 정당이 파워를 가지고 영향력을 행사하느냐에 의해 결정되었다. 본 연구에서 발견된 흥미로운 점은 선거경쟁이 과열되었을 경우 선거경합도와 정당의 파워가 상호작용을 통해 이루어내는 각 정당의 전략적(strategic) 정책방향의 수정이 이루어진다는 점이다. 즉, 선거경쟁이 치열한 경우 선거에 민주당 혹은 공화당이 의회 내에 상당한 영향력이 있는 상황하에서도 보다 많은 유권자의 지지를 획득하기 위해 민주당은 좀 더 보수적인 방향으로, 공화당은 좀 더 진보적인 방향으로 전략적 정책 방향의 변화를 이루어낸다는 것이 밝혀졌다.

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