OECD 국가의 경제적 제약과 당파적 헤게모니,그리고 복지국가 = Economic Constraints, Partisan Hegemony, and the Welfare State in OECD Countries

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper examines the determinants of the annual growth rate of social spending per capita in 17OECD countries. Using a new measure of the growth of social spending, we explore variations in the expansion and retrenchment of the welfare state in advanced democracies. The results of a robust
estimation of an error correction model of the growth of social spending show that partisan efforts of the welfare expansion are to a significant extent determined by economic constraints. More importantly, we find an interaction effect of economic constraints and left partisan hegemony on the growth of social spending. Although left partisan goals are constrained by economic conditions, when the left hegemony and economic growth are met, we find an increase in welfare spending. This pattern is more pronounced since the 1980s than the previous periods.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 논문은 1963~1994년 사이 17개 OECD 국가의 일인당 사회지출 증가율의 결정요인을 연구한다. 사회지출 증가에 대한 새로운 측정지표를 사용함으로써, 선진 민주주의 국가들에서 복지국가가 확대 또는 축소되는 모습이 어떤 차이를 나타내는지 살펴본다. 오차교정모델(error correction model)을 사용하여 로버스트 추정(robustestimation)을 수행한 결과, 사회지출 증가의‘목표(target)’수준은 상당부분 경제적 제약에 의해 결정된다. 더 중요한 것은 경제적 제약과 좌파 헤게모니 간 상호작용의 영향력에 대한 발견이다. 비록 당파적 목표의 추구가 경제적 상황에 의해 제약받기는 하지만, 좌파 헤게모니가 강한 국가에서의 경제성장이 더욱더 급격한 복지지출의 증가를 수반한다. 이는 특히 1980년 이후 시기에서 잘 나타난다. 큰 복지국가와 작은 복지국가가 수렴하는 경향성이 있지만, 반면 강한 좌파 헤게모니를 가진 국가가 이러한 수렴현상에 저항하는 경향 또한 존재한다.

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