중력모형을 이용한 한국의 TPP 회원국에 대한 수출 추정 = The Estimation of Korea’s Export to Trans-Pacific Member Countries Using The Gravity Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper analyzed the effect of the TPP on Korean economic growth using the gravity equation derived by Anderson and Wincoop (2003). The gravity model in this paper was mainly derived from CES utility function and used variables Consumer Price Index (CPI), distance, and FTA. The result throws skepticism on the benefit of TPP to Korea, even with the US as its partner country in terms of TPP. In recent days, trade amount is less influenced by physical distance but trade barriers, and the result shows the reality. The most important feature of the trade with TPP membership countries was CPI. Findings reveal that Korea CPI works very well for increasing export to TPP member countries and this trend is followed by partner countries’ CPI. However, the direction of the Korea CPI is interesting in that Korean exports increase strongly when Korea CPI increases. This implies that high Korea CPI doesn’t mean strong Korean Won to foreign currency. On the other hand, if Korean CPI increases the Korean Won value goes down which result in increasing exports to other countries.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. TPP 현황 및 기존 연구
• Ⅲ. 중력모형의 이론적 배경
• Ⅳ. 추정 자료와 모형
• Ⅴ. 실증분석
• Ⅵ. 결론

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 손경복, "환태평양경제동반자협정과 의약품 관련 지식재산 및 제도 : 협정문 내용 변화를 중심으로" 한국보건경제정책학회 22 (22): 99-117, 2016

2 황기식, "환태평양경제동반자협정(TPP) 타결에 따른 아태지역 FTA 규범의 수렴" 한국세계지역학회 34 (34): 7-28, 2016

3 박건영, "중력모형을 이용한 한국의 지역별 수출규모 분석" 한국무역연구원 10 (10): 361-382, 2014

4 김신주, "중력 모형을 이용한 인도 수출에서 실질 환율 및 환율 변동성 영향 분석" 한국무역연구원 13 (13): 309-329, 2017

5 성한경, "TPP와 TTIP가 한국, 중국, 일본에 미치는 동태적 경제효과 연구" 지암남덕우경제연구원 44 (44): 93-124, 2015

6 Jan Tinbergen, "Shaping the world economy" Wiley-Blackwell 5 (5): 27-30, 1963

7 Rose, A., "National Money as a Barrier to Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union" 91 (91): 386-390, 2001

8 McCallum, J., "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns" 85 (85): 615-623, 1995

9 Je, Hyun-Jeong, "Major Contents for TPP Product Agreements and Its Implication" 54 : 1-8, 2015

10 Deardorff, A. V., "Local Comparative Advantage: Trade Costs and The Pattern of Trade" 10 (10): 9-35, 2014

11 Costinot, A., "Handbook of International Economics" Elsevier 197-261, 2014

12 Anderson, J. E., "Gravity with Gravitas : A Solution to the Border Puzzle" 93 (93): 170-192, 2003

13 Baier, S. L., "Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members’ International Trade?" 71 (71): 72-95, 2007

14 Anderson, J. E., "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation" 69 (69): 106-116, 1979