중앙분리대 설치에 따른 사고전환효과 분석 = Accident Conversion Effect Analysis of Installing Median Barriers

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Among the traffic safety facilities, median barriers are installed above 4-lane national roads due to the awareness of having an effect on preventing the front collision. Studies about the installation effect analysis of median barrier have been carried out through both at home and outside, mainly indicating total accident reduction effect on pertinent sections. In sum, study about how the accident occurrence form is changed at the point classified by the accident type or severity is insignificant. In the case of outside the country, calculating the accident reduction effect according to the type of median barriers is main research and in domestic, though there is a part of researches assessing reduction effect by accident types, it is not reliable in the view of statistics because of using only 1year's before-after data installing the facility. So in this paper, it is the main purpose to presume the accident conversion effect. For this, we conduct an investigation and collect data about 7-year's accident data containing before-after project, safety facilities' foundation records and index of road alignment on the subject of 4-lane national roads(108.6km) existing median barrier. Next, using the empirical bayes method, we estimate a model construction and accident conversion effect of accident typeseverity. We expect the result of this paper will be applied for a policy execution and presentation of facility standard related to median barrier from now on.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

교통안전시설 중 중앙분리대는 정면충돌 사고 예방에 효과가 있다고 인식되어 4차로 이상 국도를 대상으로 설치가 이루어지고 있다. 중앙분리대 설치효과분석에 관한 연구는 국내외에서 지속적으로 이루어지고 있는데, 주로 해당구간의 전체적인 사고감소효과를 제시하고 있다. 즉, 지점에서 사고유형별 또는 심각도별로 사고발생형태가 어떻게 변화되는지에 대한 연구가 미미한 실정이다. 국외에서는 주로 중앙분리대 설치유형에 따른 사고감소효과를 산정하고 있으며, 국내에서는 일부 사고유형별 감소효과를 산정한 사례가 있기는 하나 시설물 설치전후 각 1년만의 사고자료만을 이용함으로써 도출된 값의 통계적 신뢰성을 확보하지 못하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 중앙분리대 설치에 따른 사고유형별사고심각도별 사고전환효과를 추정하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 중앙분리대가 설치된 국도 4차로 108.6km에 대하여 사업전후 총 7년간의 교통사고자료, 안전시설물 설치이력과 도로선형요소에 대한 조사와 자료수집이 이루어졌다. 다음으로 경험적베이즈(Empirical Bayes)기법을 이용한 모형구축과 사고유형심각도의 사고전환효과를 추정하였다. 연구결과는 향후 중앙분리대 관련 정책집행과 시설기준제시에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "중앙분리대의 사고감소효과 분석에 관한 연구" 대한교통학회 19 (19): 45-60, 2003

2 "중앙분리대 설치에 따른 사고전환 효과분석" 서울시립대학교 대학원 교통공학과. 2005

3 "도로안전시설의 교통사고 감소효과 측정에 관한 연구" 대한토목학회 20 (20): 139-147, 2000

4 "교통사고 잦은 곳 기본개선계획 및 효과분석." 도로교통안전관리공단 2004

5 "교통사고 잦은 곳 개선사업 업무편람" 건설교통부 2002

6 "Videolog Assessment of the Vehicle Collision Frequency with Concrete Median Barriers on an Urban Highway in Connecticut" National Research Cou ncil 1999

7 "Three-Strand Cable Median Barrier in North Carolina: In-Service Evaluation" National Research Council 97-103, 2001

8 "The safety value of guardrails and crash cushions: A meta-ana lysis of evidence from evaluation studies" elsvier science ltd. : 523-549, 1994

9 "The Empirical Bayes Method for Estimating Safety: A Tutorial" 2002

10 "Safety Effects of the Conversion of Rural Two-Lane to Four-Lane Roadways Based on Cross-Sectional Models" 10-14, 1998

11 "Safer Roads: A Guide to Road Safety Engineering" 1996

12 "Predicting the Severity of Median-Related Crashes in Pennsyvania by Using Logistic Regression" National Research Council 55-63, 2004

13 "Observation before-after Studies in Road Safety" 1997

14 "Evaluations of Road Acc ident Blackspot Treatment: A Case of the Iron Law of Evaluation Studies" 29 (29): 191-199, 1997

15 "Effect on Crashes After Construction of Directional Median Crossov ers" 2001

16 "Development of Crash Reduction Factors Methods, Probl ems, and Research Needs" 2003

17 "Crossover crahes at median strips equipped with barriers on a French motorway network" National Research Council 6-12, 2001

18 "Cross-median collisions on Pennsylvania interstates and expressways" National Research Council 91-99, 2002

19 "Crash Reduction Following Installation of Centerline Rumble Strips on Rural Two-lane Roads" 36 : 1073-1079, 2004

20 "Cost-Effectiveness Techniques for Highway Safety: Resource Allocation" FHWA FHWA-RD-84-011. 1985

21 "Association of Median Width and Highway Accident Rates Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board" TRB 70-82, 1993

22 "Accident Count Model Based on Multiyear Cross-Sectional Roadway Data with Serial Correlation" National Research Council 193-197, 2003