학령인구의 변화와 교원 수급의 예측 = Changing school-age population and the demand and supply of teachers : a projection

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to examine how changes in the school-age population would have influences on the supply and demand for teachers in the future. The birth rate continues to drop, and such a trend is expected to diminish the school-aged population. According to the projection released by the Korea National Statistical Office, the number of children in the age of 6 to 18 will be half as large as the current one in 2050, which will affect supply and demand for teachers. The demand for teachers will be lagging and the entrance quota of colleges of education will be diminished.
Various variables have an impact on the demand for teachers, but it is not realistic to deal with each of them in full detail. In this study, it is assumed that class size and student/teacher ratio are two major variables to have the biggest impact. In July 20, 2000, the Ministry of Education and Human Resources announced a medium-range project to improve the educational conditions as equal as those of OECD member nations, and have pushed ahead with it since that time. The project primarily aims at making class size and student/teacher ratio respectively to the average numbers for the OECD member nations. This has already produced satisfactory results and will continue to be promoted in the future as well.
When and to what extent class size and student/teacher ratio will be reduced depend on the government budget for education, and three hypotheses were made in this study:
First, how many teachers would be in demand and supplied was projected on the assumption that class size and student/teacher ratio will respectively the average levels of OECD member nations till 2015 and reach the lowest levels of OECD member nations till 2050.
Second, how many teachers would be in demand and supplied was projected on the assumption that class size and student/teacher ratio will reach respectively the average levels of OECD member nations till 2015 and remain the same until 2050.
Third, how many teachers would be in demand an supplied was projected on the assumption that class size and student/teacher ratio will reach respectively the average levels of OECD member nations on a long . term basis until 2050.
According to the model projections, the demand for teachers is projected to be on the rise for the time being. Since the Educational Condition Improvement Project is under way, both class size and student/teacher ratio are on the decrease, which causes a sharp increase in the demand for teachers. Especially, it will be hard to secure a sufficient number of elementary school teachers, and the Ministry of Education and Human Resources plans to give higher admission quota and transfer quota to colleges of education on a short-term basis. However, the school-aged population that shows a large decrease is inevitably expected to curtail the demand for teachers in and after 2015, though there will be some minor differences among the schools of different grade. In the long run, the demand for teacher will he diminished, and the numher of newly appointed teachers will be smaller than a half of the current size. As a consequence, admission quota of colleges of education where elementary and secondary school teachers are trained will have to be diminished by half in the long run. The Ministry of Education and Human Resources should adjust admission quota on a long-term basis since there is a wide gap in the number of newly appointed teachers every year.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목차 = ⅰ
• Ⅰ. 서론 = 1
• 1. 연구의 목적 = 1
• 2. 연구의 범위 = 2
• 3. 연구 방법 = 3
• Ⅱ. 이론적 배경과 선행 연구 고찰 = 4
• 1. 교원수급의 개념과 결정요인 = 4
• 2. 교원수급의 계획 = 7
• 3. 교원수요 예측 방법 = 8
• 4. 교원 양성 = 14
• 5. 선행 연구 고찰 = 18
• Ⅲ. 학생수 및 교원수 변동 = 24
• 1. 출산율의 변화 = 24
• 2. 학생수 변화 = 26
• 3. 교원수 변화 = 28
• 4. 학급당 학생수 변화 = 29
• 5. 교원 1인당 학생수 변화 = 32
• 6. 교원공급 현황 = 34
• 7. 학령인구 추계 = 36
• Ⅳ. 교원수요의 예측과 공급전망 = 38
• 1. 학급당 학생수 감축에 따른 교원수요의 예측과 공급전망 = 38
• 2. 교원 1인당 학생수 감축에 따른 교원수요의 예측과 공급 전망 = 52
• Ⅴ. 요약 및 제언 = 63
• 1. 요약 = 63
• 2. 제언 = 66
• 참고문헌 = 68
• ABSTRACT = 70
• 부록 = 73