Democracy and the environment---a study of China's sulfur dioxide emission goal and sulfur dioxide scrubbers in the 11th Five-Year Plan.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Democracy is sometimes argued for the environment. If right, China as a non-democracy might see less hope. Through studying China's SO2 emission goal and SO2 scrubbers in the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006--2010), this dissertation examines whether China is able to meet tough environmental goals with unprecedentedly detailed data from various Chinese sources and the author's field trips.
No consensus was found on the relationship between democracy and the environment in theoretical and empirical literatures. An empirical study in this dissertation particularly for SO2 emissions detected no consistent and statistically significant signal either.
In the 11th Five-Year Plan, the entire Chinese government was mobilized to bring down the national SO2 emissions in 2010 by 10% from the 2005 level. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) pandemic in spring 2003 contributed to making a new Chinese central government more intent on environmental protection. The national goal was divided and distributed to local governments and effective incentives were put into place to force their cooperation. Much attention was paid to institutional capacity building that would benefit not only the short-term SO2 mitigation but also a long-term success.
In each year during 2006--2008, China installed over 100 GW e of SO2 scrubbers in coal power plants, equivalent to the entire fleet that the United States accumulated over three decades. In 2008, the spending was over $6 billion in constructing, operating and maintaining SO2 scrubbers. However, many SO2 scrubbers were not effectively running. Together with continuous emission monitoring systems, China's new and strengthened economic-incentive policies greatly improved the operation. Consistent biases were found in China's official SO2 emission data. During 1998--2007, China's coal power plants should have emitted generally over a third more SO2 than announced. In 2008, SO2 emissions were reduced to about half of the 2005 level for one kWh of coal electricity.
The 11th Five-Year Plan could mark China's historical shift in environmental protection. China's good performance was also expected from goal setting theory in social psychology. This newly gained confidence could accelerate China's cleaning up the environment as well as the commitment of CO2 mitigation.