환율정책이 재선에 미치는 영향 : 아르헨티나 메넴과 마크리 정권 비교사례연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Effect of Exchange Rate Regime on Reelections in Argentina
: A comparative case study of the Menem and Macri administrations


PARK Sung-hwan
Korea University


Abstract


Due to economic recession is a critical problem even after the military regime was terminated in 1983 Argentina, to establish the sustainable economic reform program is a urgent task to all elected governments. And 'Election' reflects public preferences about incumbent‘s economic policies effectively more than authoritarian regime owing to democratic regime guarantees rights of political expressions. Consequently after democratization, when economic performances were disastrous, Argentine people have tended to punish incumbent by ’voting’ to opposition party which may cause electoral turn over.
'Carlos Menem'(1989-1999) and 'Mauricio Macri'(2015-2019) both governments were elected to presidents since former administrations had failed to handle chronic economic instability factors especially ‘hyper inflation’, ‘soaring unemployment’, and ‘external debts’. They also carried out 'orthodox stabilization policies' in his entire tenure despite some ‘defects’ that neoliberal and pro-market policies including privatization, deregulated capital market, fiscal austerity which could harsh to most of Argentine voters such as urban working-class. However Menem was re-elected to president in 1995. In the contrary, another right wing government, the 'Mauricio Macri' was failed to succeed presidential re-election in 2019 although he undertook the neoliberal orthodox stabilization programs likewise Menem's.
What factors brought about different results between Menem administration and Macri though both are same right wing governments?
The main purpose of this paper is that shed light on the 'variables' which cause different electoral results in two democratic right wing governments. I argued 'different economic performances' raised 'opposite electoral results'. And also this paper suggest that the 'foreign exchange rate systems' are main factors which brought about cause ‘different economic performances.’
While fixed exchange rate in Menem's period enabled to drop the inflation rate drastically, floating exchange rate system in Macri's period led to fluctuation of foreign currency flow, in turn exacerbated the inflation and was defeated in next term presidential election.
In conclusion Menem's stabilization programs accomplished at least to mitigate 'inflation' which in turn could secured public political supports, on the other hand Macri administration's programs could not improve any economic instability factors such as inflation, unemployment, external debts.


Key words: Menem, Macri, inflation, economic stabilization program,
neoliberal-orthodox policy, heterodox policy, economic voting,
fixed exchange rate system, floating exchange rate system

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

El Impacto del Régimen de Los Tipos de Cambio sobre Las Reelecciónes en Argentina
: Un estudio comparativo de los gobiernos de Menem y Macri


PARK Sung-hwan
Universidad de Corea


Resumen


Aunque alcanzó la democratización en 1983, la recesión economía ha sido un problema importante en Argentina. Entonces era necesario que fundan las programas sostenibles de estabilización económico los gobiernos Argentinos desde había terminado militarismo. Además por que el régimen de democrático protege los derechos de la libertad política, las preferencias de públicos son reflejado en que más que la dictadura militar.
Por eso, después la democratización, públicos Argentinos han propendido castigar incumbente con ‘voto’ cuando se llevó resultados malas de estabilización económico.
‘Carlos Menem’(1989-1999) y ‘Mauricio Macri’(2015-2019) son dos presidentes derechos desde la democratización, quienes implementaron una programa estabilización ortodoxa. Les eligieron para presidente, pues los gobiernos precedentes fueron resultados malas en economía, particularmente ‘inflación’, ‘tasa de desempleo’, ‘deuda exterior’ los que han sido problemas crónicos en Argentina. Hay unos defectos en la ‘programa estabilización ortodoxa’ como privatización o finanzas gobierno reducciónes los que ocurrirían diferencial de pobre y rico, pero Menem y Macri la ejecutaron. Pero Menem se eligieron presidente otra vez en 1995, mientras Macri fui fracasado la reelección en 2019, a pesar de se condujo la programa pro-mercado como de Menem.
¿Qué factores causaron los resultados distintos entre los gobiernos de Menem y Macri? El propósito mayor de estudio es que explicar sobre ‘las variables’ que causaron resultados diferentes entre dos gobiernos derechos.
En este estudio, supongo que resultado distinto en ‘económia’ produce resultado distinto en ‘reelección'. Y también alego que ‘régimen de los tipos de Cambio’ es principal factor el que ocasionaría resultado distinto en programa estabilización de económia.
Mientras que ‘régimen de cambio fijo’ en era de Menem permitía caído tasa de inflación rápidamente, ‘cambio flotante’ en Macri llevó la situación precaria con salida de divisas extranjeras, al fin pierde a la próximo reelección.
Al menos la reforma económica ortodoxa de Menem consiguió reducir tasa de inflación que se apoyarian públicos políticamente, pero la que de Macri no estabilizar ningunas entre inflación, desempleo, y deuda exterior.


Palabras clave: Menem, Macri, inflación,
programa estabilización económico, programa estabilización ortodoxa, programa estabilización heterodoxa, voto economicó,
régimen de cambio fijo, régimen de cambio flotante

국문 초록 (Abstract)

국문 초록


박성환
고려대학교


‘경제 안정화 정책’은 민주화 이후 아르헨티나의 역대 민선정부에게 최우선 국정 과제였다. 1983년 군부 종식 이후에도 외채문제, 고 인플레이션, 높은 실업률 등 만성적 경제 위기가 만연했기 때문이다. 과거 군부 체제와 달리 민주주의 체제 하에서는 대중의 정치적 선호를 보장하기 때문에 성과가 미미한 경제 안정화 정책에 대해 대중이 차기 선거에서 야당을 선택함으로써 정권교체가 단행되는 일이 빈번하게 발생했다. 이렇듯 민주화 이후 아르헨티나에서 ‘경제 안정화 정책의 성과 달성 여부’는 민선 정부의 재선 승리를 결정하는 주요 요인이다. 본 논문에서 분석할 메넴 정부(Carlos Saúl Menem Akil, 1989-99)와 마크리 정부(Mauricio Macri, 2015-19)역시 이전 정권(각각 라울 알폰신 정부, 크리스티나 페르난데스 정부)의 경제 실책을 계기로 집권에 성공할 수 있었고, 개혁 초기 인플레이션과 실업률, 불평등 심화 등 비용을 발생시키는 신자유주의적 정통 처방책을 추진했다는 공통점이 있다.
그러나 메넴 정부는 1995년 대선에서 재선에 성공했고, 마크리 정부는 2019년 재선에 실패했다. 두 정권 모두 동일한 정통적 안정화 정책(orthodox policy)을 추진했음에도 상이한 대중지지가 나타나게 된 까닭은 무엇일까?
본 연구는 메넴과 마크리 정부가 각기 다른 재선 달성 결과가 나타난 원인에 대해 경제 안정화 정책성과가 상이했기 때문이고 이 성과의 차이는 양 정부가 시행한 ‘환율정책’에 기인한다고 주장한다. 메넴 정부는 자국의 페소화와 달러 가치를 1대1로 동결한 강도 높은 ‘고정환율제’(태환법)를 시행하여 이전 알폰신 정부 때 거의 4,000%에 달하던 인플레이션을 집권 3년 만에 17%대로 떨어뜨리는 등 적어도 ‘인플레이션 완화’라는 소기의 경제성과를 달성했기 때문에 95년 재선에 성공했다.
반면 마크리 정부는 ‘변동환율제’를 시행하여 외자 유치 제고를 꾀하고, 페소화의 평가절하를 통한 수출경쟁력 강화를 유도했다. 그러나 페소화의 평가절하는 수입품 가격 인상을 야기하여 인플레이션을 악화시켰고 민영화를 포함한 탈규제 정책은 실업률 악화와 내수 침체를 야기하여 집권 초기부터 도시 중산층 및 노동자 계층의 강한 저항에 직면했다. 인플레이션과 금융 불안정으로 인한 환율상승이 가속화되자 마크리 정부는 2018년 9월 IMF 긴급구제금융을 요청하는 상황에 이르렀고 결국 이듬해 대선에서 제1 야당인 페론당의 알베르토 페르난데스(Alberto Fernández) 후보에 패배, 재선에 실패했다.
본 연구는 양 정부가 시행했던 상이한 환율정책(고정환율제, 변동환율제)이 경제 안정화 정책성과 여부를 결정했고 이러한 차이가 상이한 대중지지로 이어져 궁극적으로 정권의 재선 성공 여부에도 영향을 끼쳤다는 내용을 핵심 가설로 상정한다. 아울러 아르헨티나에서 민주화 이후 선거를 통한 정권교체가 대부분 기존 정부 집권기의 저조한 경제상황에 기인했다고 본다. 따라서 본 연구는 “대중이 현 정부의 경제성과에 따라 차기 대선에서 여당 지지여부를 결정한다”는 ‘경제투표 이론’(economic voting theory)을 상정한다.
한편 본 연구에서 상정한 ‘경제 안정화 정책의 성과’는 주요거시경제지표인 1. 물가안정(stability), 2. 고용안정(equality), 3. 수지안정(fundamentality: 산업 및 외채문제)이다. 메넴은 적어도 정권 초기에 물가안정을 달성한 반면, 마크리는 저 셋 중 어느 것도 달성하지 못했기 때문에 대중의 지지(재선 성공)를 확보할 수 없었다.


Key words 메넴 정부, 마크리 정부, 인플레이션, 경제 안정화 정책, 신자유주의 정통적 처방책, 이설적 처방책, 경제투표,
고정환율제, 변동환율제

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 연 구 목 차
• Ⅰ. 서론
• 1. 연구배경 및 질문······························································9
• 2. 연구주장
• 1)주장 및 전제··································································12
• 2)연구대상·······································································13
• 3)개념정의
• ⑴경제개혁정책의 종류··························································14
• ⑵대중지지의 기준과 아르헨티나의 선거제도··································15
• ⑶경제성과의 기준······························································17
• 3. 연구방법······································································18
• Ⅱ. 기존연구 검토 및 연구의의
• 1. 기존연구 검토
• 1)경제투표이론과 非경제투표이론··············································19
• 2)회고적 투표와 전망적 투표···················································20
• 3)환율제도와 경제성과 간 상관관계···········································23
• ⑴먼델-플레밍 모형·····························································23
• ⑵불가능의 삼각정리 모형······················································25
• ⑶선거주기효과 이론····························································27
• 4)세력연합 및 균열 이론: 정치 엘리트········································28
• 5)아르헨티나의 경제 안정화 정책과 대중지지·································30
• 2. 연구의의······································································31
• Ⅲ. 사례연구 1: 메넴 정부(1989-1999)
• 1. 메넴 정부 집권 1기
• 1)아우스트랄 계획·······························································33
• 2)환율정책의 두 가지 대안·····················································35
• 3)태환법과 고정환율제··························································36
• 2. 1995년 대선
• 1)경제성과 도출 성공···························································38
• 2)개헌 및 재선 성공····························································40
• 3. 소결···········································································45
• Ⅳ. 사례연구 2: 마크리 정부(2015-2019)
• 1. 마크리 정부 집권 1기
• 1)키르치네르주의(Kirchnerismo)··············································46
• 2)마크리주의(Macrismo): 탈 이념적 실용주의································48
• 3)탈규제 정책과 변동환율제····················································49
• 2. 2019년 대선
• 1)경제성과 도출 실패···························································51
• 2)재선 실패······································································56
• 3. 소결···········································································57
• Ⅴ. 결론 및 함의································································59
• Ⅵ. 참고문헌·····································································63