EU의 FTA는 대외개방지향적인가? = Are EU`s Bilateral FTAs Outward-Oriented?

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper examines whether the established EU`s bilateral FTAs are outward-oriented based on a modified gravity model estimation. It is well known that there are some endogeneity biases when it comes to measure the effectiveness of RTAs in terms of its trade creation/diversion effects. Our estimation strategy is designed to avoid these endogeneity biases and so called unobservable omitted variable biases as well. Consequently, three estimation experiments were used, i.e., fixed effect combined with time dummy and fixed effects with `time-varying country dummies` and finally country pair fixed effect combined by `time-varying country dummies` to measure the trade creation/diversion effects of 18 bilateral FTAs between EU and its partner countries. Our estimation results show that these FTAs seem to be, in general, slightly more outward-oriented than the 13 important FTAs do. It is also to be noted that the 5th EU enlargement process seems to be slightly outward-oriented. However, 18 EU`s bilateral FTAs shows more outward- oriented than the 5th EU enlargement process as well. If one considers the magnitude of regression coefficients, the 3rd countries traded 9%∼14% more with the partners of EU`s bilateral FTAs.

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