Nonstationary Distributional Changes of Annual Rainfall Indices in Taiwan

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to detect alterations of annual rainfall regime in terms of distributional changes of rainfall indices in Taiwan. A total of nine rainfall indices at eight stations with at least 72-year daily records are used to characterize annual rainfall regime. The generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) is adopted for dynamically detecting evolution of probability distributions of these indices. The results indicate that alterations of annual rainfall regime are spatial diverse and no prevalent distributional changes are observed. Approximate half indices (35/72) exhibit stationarity and WRR (wetseason rainfall ratio) is the least-affected index since only two stations (Sunmoon Lake and Chengkung) revealing nonstationarity. On the contrary, PRCPTOT (annual total rainfall), SDII (simple daily intensity index), and ADD (annual dry days) are high-affected indices due to 75% of stations exhibiting nonstationarity. Highly affected stations include Taipei, Hengchun, and Dawu because two (WRR and CRX (maximum consecutive rainfall)), one (WRR), and one (WRR) indices classified as stationarity, respectively. Taichung and Sunmoon Lake are least-affected stations since 7 out of 9 indices revealing stationarity. These facts indicate that annual rainfall regime of central-west Taiwan is less affected, and north and southeastern regions are change-prone regions.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Sigdel, M., "Variability and trends in daily precipitation extremes on the northern and southern slopes of the central Himalaya" 130 (130): 571-581, 2017

2 Chu, P. S., "Trends in return levels of 24-hr precipitation extremes during the typhoon season in Taiwan" 38 (38): 5107-5124, 2018

3 Chu, P. S., "Trends in precipitation extremes during the typhoon season in Taiwan over the last 60 years" 15 (15): 37-43, 2014

4 Yue, S., "The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series" 18 (18): 201-218, 2004

5 Su, S. H., "Temporal and spatial characteristics of typhoon extreme rainfall in Taiwan" 90 (90): 721-736, 2012

6 Liu, S.C., "Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes" 36 : L17702-, 2009

7 Zhang, Q., "Stationarity of annual flood peaks during 1951-2010 in the Pearl River basin" 519 : 3263-3274, 2014

8 Milly, P. C. D., "Stationarity is dead: whither water management?" 319 (319): 573-574, 2008

9 Reich, B.J., "Spatiotemporal quantile regression for detecting distributional changes in environmental processes" 61 (61): 535-553, 2012

10 Pour, S. H., "Spatial pattern of the unidirectional trends in thermal bioclimatic indicators in Iran" 11 (11): 2287-, 2019

11 Khan, N., "Spatial distribution of secular trends in rainfall indices of peninsular Malaysia in the presence of long-term persistence" 26 (26): 655-670, 2019

12 Kao, S. C., "Spatial and temporal variations in rainfall characteristics in mountainous and lowland areas in Taiwan" 27 (27): 2651-2658, 2013

13 Samuel Ogunjo, "Spatial Dynamical Complexity of Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over Africa and South America" Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2019

14 Olsen, J. R., "Risk of extreme events under nonstationary conditions" 18 (18): 497-510, 1998

15 Salas, J. D., "Revisiting the concept of return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic extreme events" 19 (19): 554-568, 2014

16 Kendall, M.G., "Rank correlation methods" Griffin 1975

17 Russo, S., "Projection of occurrence of extreme dry-wet years and seasons in Europe with stationary and nonstationary standardized precipitation indices" 118 (118): 7628-7639, 2013

18 Tan, X., "Precipitation trends and teleconnections identified using quantile regressions over Xinjiang" 37 (37): 1510-1525, 2017

19 Gabriele Villarini, "On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century" American Geophysical Union (AGU) 45 (45): 2009

20 Wu, X., "Observed changes in precipitation extremes across 11 basins in China during 1961-2013" 36 (36): 2866-2885, 2016

21 Hsu, H.H., "Observed and projected climate change in Taiwan" 79 (79): 87-104, 2002

22 Villarini, G., "Nonstationary modeling of a long record of rainfall and temperature over Rome" 33 (33): 1256-1267, 2010

23 Zhang, T., "Nonstationary flood frequency analysis using univariate and bivariate time-varying models based on GAMLSS" 10 (10): 819-, 2018

24 Zhang, T., "Nonstationary flood frequency analysis using univariate and bivariate time-varying models based on GAMLSS" 10 (10): 819-, 2018

25 Li, J., "Nonstationary flood frequency analysis for annual flood peak series, adopting climate indices and check dam index as covariates" 29 (29): 5533-5550, 2015

26 Li, J., "Nonstationary flood frequency analysis for annual flood peak and volume series in both univariate and bivariate domain" 32 (32): 4239-4252, 2018

27 Mann, H.B., "Nonparametric tests against trend" 13 : 245-259, 1945

28 López, J., "Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates" 17 (17): 3189-3203, 2013

29 Giraldo Osorio, J.D., "Non-stationary analysis of dry spells in monsoon season of Senegal River basin using data from regional climate models (RCMs)" 450-451 : 82-92, 2012

30 Gu, X., "Non-stationarities in the occurrence rate of heavy precipitation across China and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns" 37 (37): 4186-4198, 2017

31 Cancelliere, A., "Non stationary analysis of extreme events" 31 (31): 3097-3110, 2017

32 Donat, M. G., "More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions" 6 (6): 508-513, 2016

33 Tan, X., "Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections" 52 (52): 2105-2124, 2019

34 van Ogtrop, F. F., "Long-term forecasting of intermittent streamflow" 15 (15): 3343-3354, 2011

35 Chang, C. P., "Large increasing trend of tropical cyclone rainfall in Taiwan and the roles of terrain" 26 (26): 4138-4147, 2013

36 Chen, J. M., "Interdecadal variability of summer rainfall in Taiwan associated with tropical cyclones and monsoon" 24 (24): 5786-5798, 2011

37 Zhang, X., "Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data" 2 (2): 851-870, 2011

38 Dai, A., "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models" 3 (3): 52-58, 2013

39 Khaliq, M. N., "Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: a review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers" 368 : 117-130, 2009

40 Kim, K. B., "Hydrological modelling under climate change considering nonstationarity and seasonal effects" 47 (47): 260-273, 2016

41 Loaiciga, H. A., "Global warming and the hydrologic cycle" 174 : 83-127, 1996

42 Rigby, R. A., "Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" 54 (54): 507-554, 2005

43 Stasinopoulos, D. M., "Generalized additive models for location scale and shape (GAMLSS) in R" 23 (23): 1-46, 2007

44 Zhang, D. D., "GAMLSS-based nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in Beijing-TianjinHebei region of China" 77 (77): 1037-1053, 2015

45 Zhang, D. D., "GAMLSS-based nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in Beijing-TianjinHebei region of China" 77 (77): 1037-1053, 2015

46 Yu, J., "Future hydrological drought risk assessment based on nonstationary joint drought management index" 11 (11): 532-, 2019

47 Khaliq, M. N., "Frequency analysis of a sequence of depend and/or non-stationary hydro-meteorological observation: a review" 329 : 534-552, 2006

48 Machado, M. J., "Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling" 19 (19): 2561-2576, 2015

49 Huntington, T.G., "Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle:review and synthesis" 319 : 83-95, 2006

50 Yu, P. S., "Evaluating long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation in Taiwan" 20 (20): 1007-1023, 2006

51 Tung, Y. S., "Evaluating extreme rainfall changes over Taiwan using a standardized index" 27 (27): 705-715, 2016

52 Hamed, K.H., "Enhancing the effectiveness of prewhitening in trend analysis of hydrologic data" 368 : 143-155, 2009

53 Shiu, C. J., "Diurnally asymmetric trends of temperature, humidity, and precipitation in Taiwan" 22 (22): 5635-5649, 2009

54 Wang, H., "Distributional change of monthly precipitation due to climate change: comprehensive examination of dataset in southeastern United States" 28 (28): 5212-5219, 2014

55 Zulfaqar Sa’adi, "Distributional Changes in Rainfall and River Flow in Sarawak, Malaysia" 한국기상학회 53 (53): 489-500, 2017

56 Ziegler, A. D., "Detection of intensification in global- and continental-scale hydrological cycles: temporal scale of evaluation" 16 (16): 535-547, 2003

57 Ziegler, A. D., "Detection of intensification in global- and continental-scale hydrological cycles: temporal scale of evaluation" 16 (16): 535-547, 2003

58 Shiau, J. T., "Detecting distributional changes of annual rainfall indices in Taiwan using quantile regression" 9 (9): 368-380, 2015

59 Huang, W.R., "Decadal fluctuations in the western Pacific recorded by long precipitation records in Taiwan" 50 (50): 1597-1608, 2018

60 Chandrasekara, S. S. K., "Coastal flood disaster in Sri Lanka – May 2017: exploring distributional changes in rainfall and their impacts on flood risk" 85 : 1476-1480, 2018

61 Duan, W., "Changes of precipitation amounts and extremes over Japan between 1901 and 2012 and their connection to climate indices" 45 (45): 2273-2292, 2015

62 Önöz, B., "Block bootstrap for Mann-Kendall trend test of serially dependent data" 26 (26): 3552-3560, 2012

63 Garcia Galiano, S. G., "Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on semiarid basin (Spain)" 7 (7): 5458-5473, 2015

64 Yue, S., "Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test" 38 (38): 4-1-4-7, 2002

65 Wang, Y., "A time-dependent drought index for non-stationary precipitation series" 29 (29): 5631-5647, 2015

66 Gregersen, I. B., "A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall" 53 (53): 2659-2678, 2017

67 Li, J. Z., "A nonstationary standardized precipitation index incorporating climate indices as covariates" 120 (120): 12082-12095, 2015

68 Bazrafshan, J., "A non-stationary reconnaissance drought index (NRDI) for drought monitoring in a changing climate" 32 (32): 2611-2624, 2018

69 Hamed, K. H., "A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data" 204 : 182-196, 1998

70 Uranchimeg, S., "A Bayesian quantile regression approach for nonstationary frequency analysis of annual maximum sea level in a changing climate" 85 : 536-540, 2018