Exploring alliance cohesion : The U.S.- Philippines visiting forces agreement under the Duterte Administration

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This thesis is a qualitative study analyzing U.S.- Philippines alliance cohesion under the Duterte administration based on three levels of analysis. The rationale for analyzing all three levels of analysis is to get a comprehensive understanding of the alliance cohesion trajectory between the two countries. Since coming to power the President's inconsistent policy toward the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) signed between the two states has created uncertainty on the bilateral alliance. In less than two years, the administration issued a VFA termination notice, postponed it twice, and at last, it retracted its decision and kept the agreement. Explaining Duterte administration's zigzag behavior with regard to the VFA take into consideration three levels of analysis: first, Duterte decision-making that is influenced by his ideological orientation and anti-American sentiment; second, the Philippines' domestic politics dilemma on the tradeoff between countries sovereignty and the need for Security provision from the U.S.; and lastly, the system level of analysis examines the Philippines alliance security dilemma and how it has impacted the state's alliance behavior. The thesis concludes that all these three factors have affected the bilateral alliance in general and the President's policy on VFA in particular.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. Introduction 1
• 1. Research Context 1
• 2. Research Puzzle 2
• 3. Rational of the Study 3
• 4. Research Methodology 4
• 5. Organization of the Thesis 6
• II. Theoretical Framework: Alliance Cohesion 7
• 1. Alliance Formation 7
• 2. Alliance Cohesion 10
• 1) Threat and Alliance Cohesion 12
• 2) Security Dilemma in Alliance Game and Alliance Cohesion 15
• 3) Impact of Domestic Politics on Alliance cohesion 18
• 4) The Role of Political Leaders in Alliance Cohesion 22
• III. Literature Review 27
• IV. U.S. - Philippines Alliance Cohesion: The Visiting Forces Agreement under the Duterte Administration 30
• 1. The Visiting Forces Agreement 31
• 2. Duterte’s Decision Making 36
• 3. The Asymmetric Alliance Tradeoff Dilemma: Autonomy versus Security 47
• 4. Philippines’ Alliance Security Dilemma 53
• 5. Keeping the Visiting Forces Agreement 58
• V. Conclusion 66
• Reference 75