핵확산 논쟁과 북핵문제: 다차원적 분석 = Nuclear Proliferation Debate and Nuclear North Korea: A Multidimensional Analysis

국문 초록 (Abstract)

북한의 핵개발 속도를 감안할 때 머지않은 미래에 핵탄두 소량화 기술을 보유할 것으로 예상되며, 국제사회는 새로운 핵무기 보유국을 맞이해야 할 시기에 임박했다. 북한과 같은 비강대국(또는 불량국가)으로의 핵확산에 대한 이론적 논의는 현실을 적절히 반영하고 있는가? 북한의 핵보유의 다차원적 영향과 정책적 함의는 무엇인가? 본고에서는 북한으로의 핵확산이 갖는 의미를 분석하고 핵확산의 측면에서 다차원적으로 북핵문제에 접근하였다. 첫째, 핵확산 낙관론과 비관론을 비교 분석 및 논쟁의 최근발전 양상을 살펴보고, 둘째, 변화하는 국제환경에 따라 요구되는 핵확산 논의의 평가기준을 제시한 뒤, 마지막으로 북한의 핵보유에 대한 다차원적 접근을 통해 국제사회 핵확산의 측면에서 북핵문제가 갖는 의미를 분석하였다. 이를 통해 살펴본 바, 북한으로의 핵확산은 안정성, 경제, 환경, 국내정치, 국제안보적 측면에서 모두 부정적인 결과를 낳게 될 것이다. 북핵문제는 상황과 맥락의 특수성 측면에서만 분석할 것이 아니라 변화한 안보 환경 속에서 핵확산 문제의 연장선상에서 바라볼 필요가 있으며, 이를 통해 보다 객관적이고 국제사회의 동의를 얻을 수 있는 접근이 가능하다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper aims to analyze the development of the nuclear proliferation debate and evaluate the North Korean nuclear issue with respect to the multidimensional effects of nuclear proliferation. Does the theoretical debate properly reflect the reality of spreading nuclear weapons to non-great power countries? What are the implications and multidimensional effects of nuclear proliferation to North Korea? In order to answer the questions, this paper evaluates the theoretical developments of the nuclear proliferation debate and addresses criteria for the debate under the changing international security context. According to the multidimensional analysis, nuclear proliferation toward North Korea will bring a negative effect, rather than a stabilizing one, in terms of nuclear stability, economy, environment, domestic politics, and regional security perspectives.

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