A System Dynamics Perspective of Finger Lakes Winery Capacity Utilization and Implications of the Wine Industry and Liquor Store Revitalization Act for Wine Distribution.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As a consequence of the Wine Industry and Liquor Store Revitalization Act, proposed changes to New York State's wine distribution system will potentially increase the distribution of wine by allowing grocery stores to sell wine for the first time. The primary focus of this study is to explore the process of production efficiency in wineries by comparing the current distribution model with the new model that follows from systems changes as a result of this proposed legislation. The research examined Finger Lakes winery capacity to meet demand increases by applying an iterative five-step system dynamics modeling approach through a simulation exercise. The rationale for using such an approach is that it illustrates the predicted consequences of different percentage increases in demand on a winery's current production capacity. Outcomes from simulation are twofold: first, simulation provides and validates a workable model that will provide further application for industry research and winery use; and second, it determines that Finger Lakes wineries can meet the selected demand increases of between 10 and 50 percent with existing current capacity. The paper concludes with a recommendation for future research, considered in detail using Forrester's (1968) market growth model as adapted by Morecroft (1983).