미중관계 전망 시나리오 분석: 2010년대 미국 싱크탱크들의 미래 전망 보고서들을 중심으로 = Analysis of Scenarios on the Future of U.S.-China Relations: Focusing on the U.S. Think Tanks’ Foresight Reports in the 2010s

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As the strategic competition between the U.S. and China has begun, the uncertainty in U.S.-China relations has increased, and various discussions among think tanks have been made regarding the prospects on the future of U.S.-China relations. The scenarios on the future of U.S.-China relationship, presented by think tanks, provide a glimpse into how they perceive the current state, change and future of the U.S.-China relationship. In this regard, this study focuses on exploring the U.S. think tanks’ prospects for U.S.-China relations which reflect the U.S. perception and strategic thinking towards its relations with China. This paper aims to identify major trends and changes in the U.S. perception of its relations with China and to find important clues for the future prospects of U.S.-China relations by analyzing the forecast scenarios of U.S.-China relations presented in the foresight reports published by major think tanks in the U.S. in the 2010s. In addition, based on this analysis, this paper also examines the increasing tendency in U.S.-China relations since the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and discusses the future of U.S.-China relations in the post-COVID-19 era.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

미·중 간 전략적 경쟁이 본격화되면서 미중관계의 불확실성이 증대되었고, 향후 미중관계의 전망을 놓고 싱크탱크들 사이에 다양한 논의가 지속되고 있다. 싱크탱크들이 제시하는 미중관계 전망 시나리오들은 그들이 미중관계의 현재 상태와 변화, 그리고 미래를 어떻게 인식하고 있는지를 단적으로 보여준다. 이러한 관점에서, 본 연구는 미중관계에 대한 미국의 인식과 전략적 사고를 반영하고 있는 미국 싱크탱크들의 미중관계 전망 시나리오에 주목한다. 본 논문은 2010년대 미국의 주요 싱크탱크들이 발간한 미래 전망 보고서들에서 제시된 미중관계 전망 시나리오들을 분석함으로써 미국의 미중관계에 대한 인식에서 나타나는 주요한 경향과 변화를 확인하고 향후 미중관계 전망을 위한 중요한 단초를 찾아보고자 한다. 또한, 이러한 분석을 바탕으로 최근 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 미중관계에서 나타나는 주요한 경향을 분석하고 포스트 코로나 시대의 미중관계를 전망해 본다.

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