정상 마르코프 연쇄모형에 의한 부산권 인구분포예측 연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Population distribution plays a very important role as a leading indicator in various urban planning and its implementation. Inaccurate prediction of population distribution will bring about loss of the rationality that may reside in a plan or an idea not only for the concerning city but also for its adjacent metropolitan areas. On the basis of understanding the importance of the prediction this thesis studies characteristics of the population of the Busan region. The study is pursued by the analysis of the move-in and move-out data of Busan’s administrative districts, which shows that the change of address is a primary factor dominating the change in population distribution. The analysis adopts the stationary Markov chain model, which is one of the popular methods for population analysis home and abroad. The period of the analysis in this study covers six years from 1995 to 2000. The target area is subdivided into Si(city)s, Guun(county)s, and Gu(district)s, and analyzed by its administrative subdivisions.