한국의 재정지출과 경제성장의 인과관계 분석 = Government Expenditures and Economic Growth -Causality Evidence from Korea-

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the Wagner`s Law and the Keynesian view on government expenditures and economic growth for Korea over the period 1970 to 2008. Although Wagner`s original ideas were broad, subsequent researchers have interpreted the law in narrow terms. In this narrow terms, we use co-integration and causality tests to investigate the causal relationship between government expenditures and economic growth for Korea. By employing a recent econometric technique, we attempt to examine the validity of Wagner`s Law in the Korean economy. It is found that both the government expenditures variables and the income variables are integrated of the same order one(i.e. I(1)). The empirical results using the co-integration test show evidence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between government expenditures (including expenditures on general public services, defense, economic development, education, social welfare) and Gross Domestic Product. The evidence show that the estimated income elasticities are greater than unity, except for defense expenditure. The empirical results confirm the validity of Wagner`s Law in Korea. Granger causality tests also show that for all government expenditure categories, the long-run causality runs from GDP to government expenditures, which supports Wagner`s Law in Korea.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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