인구구조의 변화가 지역경제에 미치는 영향 - 광주와 전남을 중심으로 - = Demographic Change and Economic Performance in the Regional Economy - Focusing on Gwangju and Jeollanam-do Areas -

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study empirically analyzes the impact of demographic changes on economic growth and labor share of income using a panel of Korea’s 16 regions for the 2000-2017 period. We also delve into the differentiation between the metropolitan regions and less urbanized regions. In particular, we attempt to understand whether Gwangju Metropolitan City and Jeollanam-do are distinguishable from other regions in Korea in terms of aforementioned economic impact of demographic changes. There are three major findings. First, population aging and low fertility slow down economic growth and potentially shrink the labor share of income. Second, economic growth of metropolitan regions is more severely affected by demographic change, while labor share of income in less urbanized regions is more sensitive to the change. Third, Gwangju’s economic growth is more swayed by the movement in the proportion of youth population but its labor share shows a similar pattern with other regions. On the other hand, Jeollanam-do is found to be more sensitive to changes in proportions of aged and youth population. These findings suggest that demographic change can embark a negative effect on economic growth and labor share of income and the effect may vary by regions.

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