發電機의 多重運轉모델 및 負荷의 不確實性을 고려한 確率論的 發電 시뮬레이션의 效率的인 方法의 開發 = Development of efficient method for probabilistic generation simulation considering multi-generation model and load uncertainty

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The probabilistic generating simulation plays a key role in expansion planning and operating scheduling of generation system. It is crucial to develop a good algorithm which can give us sufficiently precise results within a reasonable computation time.
This paper describes an effective algorithm for evaluating the loss of load probability and calculating the production cost for all the generators in the system using two-dimensional Fast Hartley Transform (FHT). In this paper, the scheduling of pumped-storage plants and hydro plants with energy constraints is considered with load uncertainty. To do this, the deconvolution formula is newly derived. Also, the models which include multi-block by loading of units to equal marginal cost levels in an economic dispatch mode and multi-state by the partial loading caused by derating are considered. The proposed method has been applied for real size model system as large as KEPCO system.