Is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization a threat to the United States?

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has played an important role as a regional organization in Central Asia since its establishment in 2001. Initially, the SCO focused on two primary objectives, regional security and energy cooperation between member states. However, over the years, the role of the SCO has expanded incrementally, and this trend is expected to accelerate with the addition of India and Pakistan, who were approved as the 7th and 8th full members of the SCO in 2016.
While some Western analysts believe the SCO is inevitably a threat to American interests in Central Asia, this thesis will make the case that, while some American interests may conflict with SCO interests, others do not, and consequently, the overall impact of the SCO will remain positive for its members, the United States and the world. Having said that, it is important to identify what constitute American interests in Central Asia.
Perhaps the most important American economic interest in Central Asia is energy. The Central Asia region includes many energy exporting countries, including SCO members Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The SCO also contains two superpowers – Russia and China. Russia is a major energy producer and Russian companies are major competitors to American companies in the energy business. China, on the other hand, is the world’s largest energy importer. As such, both Russia and China have an interest in limiting the role and influence of the United States in the field of energy in this region.
Another major interest of the United States in Central Asia is regional security and terrorism, especially as it relates to Afghanistan. As a result of the September 11 attacks in 2001, the United States has been heavily involved in military and security issues in this region, especially in Afghanistan. While there remain American troops in Afghanistan, President Barack Obama announced the United States would commence to withdraw those troops from Afghanistan, a decision consistent with SCO demands in this regard.
It is also widely understood that after the admission of India and Pakistan, the next new full member of the SCO is most likely to be Iran. Not surprisingly, the US does not want Iran to become a full member of the SCO for a variety of reasons. Specifically in terms of energy, Americans fear that Russia and Iran will form a natural gas cartel that will be able to control the price of natural gas in the world.
Key words: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cooperation on energy, American interests, security in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, full member

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract 5
• 1. Introduction 8
• 1.1 Research question 13
• 1.2 United States interests toward Central Asia 21
• 2. Literature Review: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and US interests in Central Asia 24
• 2.1 Energy in Central Asia: SCO versus US 28
• 2.2 Security in Afghanistan 37
• 2.3 Regional Stability 46
• 3. Gaps in the literature 51
• 3.1 Promoting democracy 51
• 3.2 Acceptance of Iran as a full member of the SCO 53
• 4. Theoretical approach towards Shanghai Cooperation Organization 63
• 4.1 Defining a Region 63
• 4.2 Traditional Regionalism and New Regionalism 65
• 4.3 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization in new regionalism theory 69
• Conclusion 73
• References 82