Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization A reappraisal using value-added trade data

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade integration and intra-regional business cycle synchronization using value-added trade data. Most empirical studies analyzing the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization use gross trade data which suffer from double-counting. Double-counting distorts the empirical results on the estimated relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization. This paper explores the relationship using value-added trade data to be free from distortions caused by double-counting.
Design/methodology/approach – Gross trade data on exports and imports are decomposed into sub-categories following Koopman et al. (2014). Then, value-added data on exports and imports without double-counted terms are built to measure value-added bilateral trade intensity and value-added intra-industry trade intensity. Using this value-added trade intensities, the author run panel regressions for Europe and East Asian countries to examine how value-added trade intensities are correlated with output co-movements.
Findings – The paper finds that for European countries, the positive association between trade and business cycle co-movements is more evidently observed and the role of intra-industry trade increasing the business cycle synchronization is also more clearly revealed by value-added trade data. On the other hand, for East Asian countries, value-added trade data reveal that it is very uncertain whether increased trade contributes to stronger synchronization of business cycles and intra-industry trade is truly the major factor which deepens the business cycle co-movements.
Research limitations/implications – First, the paper examines the relationship only by running static panel regression. There is a need to employ different methodologies such as instrumental variable regression or dynamic panel regression. Second, financial integration and policy coordination within a region are also other relevant factors which influence the intra-regional business cycle synchronization. There is a need to examine the relationship using value-added trade data with the variables measuring the degree of financial integration and policy coordination. Third, value-added trade data used in this paper has limited coverage of East Asian countries. There is also a need to extend the value-added data set to cover more countries and industries.
Originality/value – Most empirical literature studying the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization rely on gross trade data. This paper would be the first attempt to study the relationship using value-added trade data. Duval et al. (2014) also use value-added data, but their value-added data are not supported by a solid accounting framework which decomposes a country’s gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double-counted terms. Value-added data in this paper computed based on Koopman et al. (2014) are the total domestic value exports that are ultimately consumed abroad via final and intermediate exports. The author believes that value-added data in this paper are most relevant in estimating the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization.

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