Simulation of Flood Evolution and Quantitative Rrisk Assessment of Baige Landslide in Jinsha River, China = Simulation of Flood Evolution and Quantitative Rrisk Assessment of Baige Landslide in Jinsha River, China

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

On October 10, 2018, a landslide with volume about 2.2×10⁶㎥ occurred in Baige Village, Sichuan Province, China, which blocked the Jinsha River and formed a landslide dam with height of 120m, width of 200m and a storage capacity of about 1.5×10⁸㎥. The reservoir water was naturally discharged and its flood had no effect on the downstream area. On November 3, the second landslide with volume about 8.5×10⁶㎥ occurred in the same point, which further increased the original dam width nearly 50m, and formed a landslide dam with height of 170m, and its storage capacity reached 5.24×10⁸㎥. Due to the large storage capacity and the uncertainty of the breaching of the dam, and the discharge flood generated by its breach can bring great threat to the lives and property in the downstream areas. This paper compares the DABA with the measured data to obtain its discharge flow curve, and further based on Hec-Ras to simulate the flood evolution of Baige landslide dam, and the downstream submergence range has been determined. Finally, the Bayesian method is used to quantify the downstream individual risk and loss of life. The results show that Shangjiang and Judian Town were the most seriously affected. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment results show that the amount of risk is negatively correlated with the distance from the dam site. The casualty rate is low due to the submergence area is basically located in the downstream. However, the property loss of local infrastructure and farmland is more serious.