Neural network heterogeneous autoregressive models for realized volatility

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, we consider the extension of the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model for realized volatility by incorporating a neural network (NN) structure. Since HAR is a linear model, we expect that adding a neural network term would explain the delicate nonlinearity of the realized volatility. Three neural network-based HAR models, namely HAR-NN, $HAR({\infty})-NN$, and HAR-AR(22)-NN are considered with performance measured by evaluating out-of-sample forecasting errors. The results of the study show that HAR-NN provides a slightly wider interval than traditional HAR as well as shows more peaks and valleys on the turning points. It implies that the HAR-NN model can capture sharper changes due to higher volatility than the traditional HAR model. The HAR-NN model for prediction interval is therefore recommended to account for higher volatility in the stock market. An empirical analysis on the multinational realized volatility of stock indexes shows that the HAR-NN that adds daily, weekly, and monthly volatility averages to the neural network model exhibits the best performance.