국가안보 정책결정과정에서 정보왜곡의 발생요인에 관한 연구: 2003년 미국의 이라크 WMD 정보판단을 중심으로 = A Study on the Causal Factors of Intelligence Distortion in the National Security Policy Making Processes -Focusing on Intelligence Judgment of WMD of U.S.A. to Iraq in 2003 -

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to investigate causal factors of intelligence distortion in American national security policy making process. Even though adequate and timely intelligence is requisite for rational policy making, intelligence provided to policy makers are often distorted through the intelligence circulation process, thus limiting rational policy making.
Most findings in previous studies are only by-products of researches in cognitive psychology, communication theories, organization behavior theories, etc. Moreover, it is difficult to conduct studies on the developing causes of intelligence distortion in the national security circulation policy because of characteristics of security and secrecy of intelligence process. Particularly, empirical studies on this matter are rarely available in Korea. Therefore, in order to evaluate this topic, I reviewed previous findings on intelligence distortion in various academic fields. Also, I conducted in-depth interviews and created questionnaires about intelligence distortion for Korean experts on the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) policy of the U.S.A. to Iraq in 2003.
Therefore, I developed a framework for research analysis using parameters derived from collection officer, analysis officer, gatekeepers, policy decision maker. I also set moderating variables that the openness of related intelligence, the redundancy of intelligence channels, uncertainty, and dependent variables derived from intelligence distortion in forms such as exaggeration, reduction, fabrication, omission, and procrastination. Previous researches focusing on the independent variables have not verified the national case and time factor which caused intelligence distortion. Accordingly, this was a new type of research method. In the result of the study, it has been verified that all variables such as independent variables, moderating variables, parameter etc. Utilization in previous researches was compelling factors in explaining direct and indirect affects towards intelligence distortion.
By this study, it illustrated that the intelligence distortion is a serious problem that can cause a fatal loss in existence and prosperity of a nation by misleading policy makers to wrong policy making. Most intelligence distortion is created in the intelligence circulation process. However, after the study, it has been discovered that the president, the top policy maker, as well as chief governmental officials could have manipulated the intelligence. Therefore, it is safe to say that much intelligence distortion could be caused by the policy maker who lacked sufficient policy responses or used the intelligence for their own political purposes.
If this is the case, we can conclude that both sides, users and producers, have to overcome intelligence distortion for efficient national policy making decisions.