중·일관계 40년과 양국관계 전망 = Forty Years of Sino-Japanese Relationship and Its Future

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Forty years have passed since China and Japan normalized their relations in 1972 and signed the Peace and Friendship Treaty in 1978. The two nations’ relations of this period can be divided into two. During the Cold War the relationship can be defined as “stability and improvement”. And after the end of the Cold War it can be defined as “instability and exploration”. This is because during the Cold War there was a common enemy of the Soviet Union, but after the end of the Cold War the Soviet Union disappeared and while China is rising, Japan is pursuing new national identity.
In the meantime, due to the disputes over the sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands which took place since 2010, the Sino-Japanese relationship has deteriorated to the worst level since 1972, when the two countries normalized their relations. However, two nations’ relations are improving to a limited extent since Japanese Prime Minister Abe paid an official visit to China in October 2018. Although two nations’ relationship is improving a little recently, it does not appear to be elevated to a honeymoon stage. This is because there is structural issues such as Sino-Japanese historical rivalry and US-Japanese alliance. Therefore, in the near future the relationship will alternate between confrontation and cooperation within a certain limit and probably more confrontation will appear.