An Alternative Pension System to Address the Projected Fiscal Imbalance of Social Security in the US = 민간화 방식을 활용한 미국 사회보장연금의 정책대안 연구

국문 초록 (Abstract)

향후 미국 사회보장연금의 적자 상태가 불가피하게 예견되는 상황에서, 이에 대한 세가지 대안이 일반적으로 제시되고 있다. 연금기여금 인상, 연금지급액 삭감 및 민간화 방식의 활용이다. 그러나 전자의 두가지 대안은 지속가능하지 않을 뿐만 아니라 국민들로부터 많은 반발을 유발할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 지속가능하고 가장 바람직한 대안으로, 현재의 pay-as-you-go 시스템은 민간화 방식으로 전환되어야 하며 민간화 방식 중에서도 연금펀드(PF)방식을 제안하고 있다. 이러한 민간화 방식을 활용한 연금펀드는 자금 조달 측면에서는 연금 기여세대와 수혜세대를 가능한 한 일치하도록 하고 수혜액 기준 부과방식을 채택하며, 자금 운용 측면에서는 시장여건을 반영한 투자 조합을 강조한다. 본 연구에서 제안하고 있는 모델의 장점은 근로자들의 사회보장 연금 납부액을 현재보다 크게 낮출 수 있고, 납부세대와 수혜세대의 불일치를 해소하며, 향후 고령화 시대에도 지속 가능하다는 장점을 지니고 있다. 일반적으로 연금의 민간화 과정에서 나타날 수 있는 높은 관리비용, 위험 및 전이 비용을 최소화할 수 있다는 점에서 강점을 지니고 있다고 하겠다. 본 논문은 연금펀드방식의 필요성과 타당성을 이론적 논리를 통하여 제시하고자 하였으며, 이에 대한 수학적 모델 및 시뮬레이션을 통한 실증적 근거 제시는 다른 논문에서 수행하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In the face of the projected budget imbalance of the Social Security, this paper contends that replacement of the current pay-as-you-go system with the fully-funded system is a viable and adequate policy option. In particular, this paper proposes a specific type of fully-funded pension model, named New Pension Fund (NPF) System, as an ideal solution to the projected budget imbalance of Social Security. Under this fully-funded and benefit-defined NPF System, all contributions are collected into Pension Fund that is homogenously invested in private market in a way to reflect market portfolio, not giving individuals investment choice. This model of Social Security-although not a privatized model in a strict sense as the federal government still owns and manages the fund-shares benefits associated with privatization such as an increase in efficiency by requiring lower payroll tax from workers, a decrease in distortion, and immunity to demographic structure change in the aging society. At the same time, this specific NPF model minimizes the problems often associated with general privatization schemes, such as high administrative costs, risks and transition costs. To clarify, this paper focuses on its discussion of the NPF model at a theoretical and reasoning level. More research on empirical findings or simulation of the NPF model will be discussed in another paper. Lastly, since Korean pension system is going to have similar problems that the US is facing, the study of the US pension system in this paper will shed some light on the problems and solutions to Korean pension system as well.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• ABSTRACT
• Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION
• Ⅱ. PROBLEMS WITH THE CURRENT SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM
• Ⅲ. PRIVATIZATION: BENEFITS
• Ⅳ. PRIVATIZATION: PROBLEMS
• Ⅴ. POLICY SUGGESTION: NPF SYSTEM AS MAXIMIZING BENEFITS OF PRIVATIZATION WHILE MINIMIZING PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH ITASSOCIATED WITH IT
• Ⅵ. CONCLUSION
• REFERENCE
• 국문초록

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Feldstein, Martin, "Would privatizing social security raise economic welfare?" 1995

2 SSA, "Updates for 2011" SSA Publication 2011

3 Anrig Jr., Greg, "Twelve Reasons why Privatizing Social Security is a Bad Idea. The Century Foundation Social Security Project" The Century Foundation 2005

4 Feldstein, Martin, "Transition to a fully funded pension system: five economic issues" 1997

5 Feldstein, Martin S., "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security, In Privatizing Social Security" University of Chicago Press 215-260, 1996

6 Poterba, James M., "The Rate of Return to Corporate Capital and Factor Shares: New Estimates Using Revised National Income Accounts and Capital Stock Data" 1997

7 Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), "The Facts on Saving and Investing: Exceprts from Recent Polls and Studies Highlighting the Need for Financial Education" 1999

8 Feldstein, Martin S., "The Economics of Prefunding Social Security and Medicare Benefits. NBER 6055, In The 1997 NBER MacroeconomicsAnnual1997" MIT Press 115-163, 1997

9 Murthi, Mamta J., "The Charge Ratio on Individual Accounts: Lessons from the U.K. Experience" Experience 1999

10 Board of Trustees, Social Security Trust Funds (BT), "The 2011 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds. U.S" Government Printing Office 2011

11 Board of Trustees, Social Security Trust Funds (BT), "The 2010 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds. U.S" Government Printing Office 2010

12 Board of Trustees, Social Security Trust Funds (BT), "The 2009 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds. U.S" Government Printing Office 2009

13 Ibbotson, R. & Associates, "Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation. 2011 Yearbook. Chicago, IL"

14 Poterba, James M., "Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption" 1995 (1995): 295-357, 1996

15 Beach, William W., "Social Security’s Rate of Return. Heritage Foundation Study"

16 Reno, Virginia P., "Social Security and Retirement Income Adequacy" National Academy of Social Insurance 2007

17 Mariger, Randall P., "Social Security Privatization: What it can and cannot accomplish. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 1997-32. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System" 1997

18 Altig, David, "Social Security Privatization: A Simple Proposal" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 1997

19 Board of Trustees, Social Security Trust Funds (BT), "Social Security Privatization and Financial Market Risk" Center on Social and Economic Dynamics 2000

20 Geanakoplos, John, "Social Security Money’s Worth, In Prospects for Social Security Reform" University of Pennsylvania Press 1999

21 SSA, "Social Security Income, Outgo, and Assets. Trust Fund Data" Office of the Chief Actuary 2011

22 Diamond, Peter, "Saving Social Security: The Diamond-Orszag Plan" Brookings Institution 2005

23 Diamond, Peter, "Saving Social Security: A Balanced Approach" 2003

24 Burtless, Gary, "Risk and Returns of Stock Market Investments Held in Individual Retirement Accounts. Congressional testimony before Task Force on Social Security Reform" House Budget Committee 1999

25 Malkiel, Burton G., "Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991" 50 (50): 549-572, 1995

26 Orszag, Peter R., "Rethinking Pension Reform: Ten Myths About Social Security Systems" The World Bank 1999

27 Feldstein, Martin, "Reducing the Risk of Investment-Based Social Security Reform" 2005

28 Gruber, Jonathan, "Public Finance and Public Policy" Worth Publishers 2009

29 Diamond, Peter, "Proposals to Restructure Social Security" 10 (10): 67-88, 1996

30 Kotlikoff, Laurence J., "Privatizing Social Security in the United States—Comparing the Options" 2 : 532-574, 1999

31 Kotlikoff, Laurence J., "Privatizing Social Security at Home and Abroad" 86 (86): 368-372, 1996

32 Kotlikoff, Laurence J., "Privatization of Social Security: How it Works and Why it Matters" MIT Press 10 : 1-32, 1996

33 Heclo, Hugh, "Political Risk and Social Security Reform, In Framing the Social Security Debate: Values, Politics and Economics" Brooking Institution Press 1998

34 Holzmann, Robert, "Pension Reform, Financial Market Development, and Economic Growth: Preliminary Evidence from Chile" 44 (44): 149-178, 1996

35 SSA, "Nominal Interest Rates on Special Issues" 2011

36 Mitchell, Olivia, "New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities" 89 (89): 1299-1318, 2000

37 Social Security Administration (SSA), "Month Interest Rates, 1937-1999"

38 OMB, "Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government. Fiscal Year 2011" 2011

39 Goss, Stephen C., "Measuring Solvency in the Social Security System, In Prospects for Social Security Reform" University of Pennsylvania Press 1999

40 Diamond, Peter, "Macroeconomic Aspects of Social Security Reform" 1997

41 Kotlikoff, Laurence J., "It’s High Time to Privatize" 15 (15): 16-22, 1997

42 Diamond, Peter, "Issues in Privatizing Social Security: Report of an Expert Panel of the National Academy of Social Insurance" MIT Press 1999

43 SSA, "Interest Rates on Social Security Investments. Trust Fund Data" Office of the Chief Actuary 2011

44 Rippe, Richard, "Further gains in corporate profitability. Economic Outlook Monthly" New York Prudential Securities 1995

45 Malkiel, Burton G., "Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics" Princeton University 2003

46 Engen, Eric M., "Effects of Social Security Reform on Private and National Saving" 41 (41): 1997

47 Stiglitz, Joseph, "Economics of the Public Sector, 3rded" WW. Norton & Company 1999

48 Turner, John A., "Economic Analysis of Mandatory Defined Contribution Pension Systems" International Labor Office 1997

49 Damodaran, Aswath, "Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 – Current" Stern Business School 2011

50 Auerbach, Alan J., "An Examination of Empirical Tests of Social Security and Savings, In Social Policy Evaluation: An Economic Perspective" Academic Press 1983

51 SSA, "Administrative expenses as a percentage of total expenditures, 1957-2010" Actuarial Publications 2010

52 Congressional Budget Office (CBO), "Administrative Costs of Private Accounts in Social Security" A CBO Study 2004

53 Mitchell, Olivia, "Administrative Costs in Public and Private Retirement Systems, In Privatizing Social Security. edited by Martin Feldstein" University of Chicago Press 1998

54 Diamond, Peter, "Administrative Costs and Equilibrium Charges with Individual Accounts, In Administrative Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform" University of Chicago 137-172, 2000

55 Modigliani, Franco, "A Solution to the Social Security Crisis" Fourth Revision 2000