시간선호 안정성: 채무조정제도 이용자 대상 경제학 실험 = Temporal Stability of Time Preferences: An Experiment with Debt Relief Program Users

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 1년 간격의 반복 실험을 통해 구축한 패널 자료를 활용하여 채무조정제도 이용자의 시간선호의 시점 간 안정성을 확인하였다. 채무조정제도 이용자가 처한 경제적 상황에 따라 선호가 시점 간 변화할 수 있다는 가설하에 채무조정제도 진행단계별로 세 집단―진행집단, 종료집단, 그리고 기타 집단―을 구성하였다. 채무상환에 따른 경제적 압박이 계속되고 있는 진행집단에서, 다른 두 집단과 달리, 정상성의 두드러진 감소와 현재편향의 증가가 관찰되었으며 이 결과들은 인구 사회학적 변수들을 통제하고도 통계적으로 유의하였다. 한편, 세 집단 모두 시간할인율은 안정적이었다. 본 연구의 결과는 개인 선호의 불안정성이 극한적 경제적 상황과 밀접하게 관련이 될 수 있음을 시사한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

We study the temporal stability of the time preferences of debt relief program users by repeatedly conducting an incentivized intertemporal choice experiment over two years. We divide participants into three groups according to their stages in the program: ongoing, completed, and others. We find that stationarity decreased and present bias increased in the ongoing group, who remained under the pressure of debt repayment, in contrast to the other two groups. On the other hand, all three groups had stable time discounting rates. Our findings suggest that the instability of individual preferences may have a close relationship to extreme economic conditions.

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