고흥군의 HS2008 품목군 수출경쟁력 분석: 미국시장에서 경쟁국을 중심으로 = The Export Competitiveness Analysis of HS2008 Product Groups in Goheung-gun: A Focus on Competitors in the US Market

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The primary data for this study is collected from the United Nations International Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade) and the Korea International Trade Association (KITA). The study’s data spans seven years from 2015 to 2021. Nine countries were selected as the top importers of the United States’ HS2008 products, which are Mexico, Canada, China, Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Ecuador, and Indonesia. This paper employs the constant market share model. Constant market share analysis, a popular technique for analyzing export performance, is a statistical technique that allows for the ex-post examination of changes in a country’s total exports or aggregate market share. Export growth has been divided into three components: import scale growth, competitive effects, and cross effect. The import scale growth effect equals the increase in exports if a country maintains its share of total world exports. The competition effect means, while the import scale of country remains unchanged, the export quantity variation caused by the influence of product qualities, prices or policies in the native country. The cross effect means the export quantity variation caused by the cross variation of the export structure in the native country and the import structure in the trading country, and it is caused by both the scale effect and the competition effect. In the case of Korea, competitiveness effect and higher market share in the United States drive and boost Korea's export growth of HS2008 product group, which accounts for most of Goheung county's exports. The impact of commodity composition has positive values throughout the study except for Korea for the period 2018-19. Mexico’s competitiveness has a positive effect on its HS2008 exports to the United States but Mexico’s export structure diminishes export performance. Canada’s competitiveness increases its exports a little and export structure has a positive effect. For Thailand and China, competitiveness reduces their exports significantly and their negative cross effects are great. Vietnam’s HS2008 exports increase greatly with higher competitiveness and favorable export structure, while the Philippines’ HS2008 exports decrease much with lower competitiveness and an unfavorable export structure.