The Trade Impact of Enhanced Multimodal Connectivity in the Asia-Pacific Region = The Trade Impact of Enhanced Multimodal Connectivity in the Asia-Pacific Region

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper develops new measures of multimodal transport connectivity, and uses a gravity model to show that improving performance could lead to major trade gains for the Asia-Pacific region. By improving multimodal connectivity by 5%, APEC would increase exports by around 4%, or between 2% and 6% per member economy. In dollar terms, this equates to an impact gain of $500bn in total, or between $850m and $115bn per member economy. Economies that are open, highly integrated into world markets, and with strong connectivity baselines stand to gain the most. We also find that of the elements of multimodal transport connectivity, it is logistics services performance that generally has the strongest effect on trade.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "http://www.iamot.org/conference/index.php/ocs/9/schedConf/presentations"

2 World Bank, "World development report 2009: reshaping economic geography" The World Bank 2009

3 Ben Shepherd, "Trade, Infrastructure, and Roadways in Europe and Central Asia: New Empirical Evidence" 경제통합연구소 22 (22): 723-747, 2007

4 Hoekman, B., "Trade policy, trade costs, and developing country trade" The World Bank 2008

5 Guerrero, P., "Trade logistics and regional integration in Latin America & the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank working paper series. 148"

6 Shepherd, B., "Trade facilitation in APEC and ASEAN: Delivering the Goods"

7 Anderson, J., "Trade costs" 42 (42): 691-751, 2004

8 Carruthers, Robin, "Trade and logistics in East Asia: a development agenda, EASTR Working Paper, No. 3, Transport Sector Unit" Infrastructure Department, East Asia and Pacific Region, The World Bank 2003

9 Silva, J.M.C.S., "The log of Gravity" 88 (88): 641-658, 2006

10 Buys, P., "Road network upgrading and overland trade expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa" The World Bank 2006

11 Bafoil, François, "Relooking at the role of transport infrastructure in trade, regional growth and governance: comparing Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and Central Eastern Europe (CEE)" 2010

12 Battaglia, Paul, "Modeling intermodal transportation for developing countries" 2007

13 UNCTAD, "Liner shipping connectivity in 2009" 43 (43): 6-10, 2009

14 Wilmsmeier, G., "Liner shipping connectivity and port infrastructure as determinants of freight rates in the Caribbean" 10 : 130-151, 2008

15 Geloso-Grosso, M., "Liberalizing air cargo services in APEC" GEM Sciences Po. Working Paper 2009

16 APEC Transportation Working Group, "Liberalization of air services in the APEC region, 1995-2005" Prepared by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation 2005

17 Limao, N., "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, transport costs, and trade" 15 (15): 451-479, 2001

18 Jacoby, David, "Infrastructure investment: the supply chain connection" 4 : 2008

19 Prentice, Barry E., "Importance of intermodal connectivity and bottleneck elimination" 2003

20 Samuels, G., "How competition law supports transport and logistics solutions"

21 Anderson, J.E., "Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle" 93 (93): 170-192, 2003

22 Vickerman, Roger, "Gateways, corridors and competitiveness: an evaluation of Trans-European networks and lessons for Canada" 2007

23 Helpman, E., "Estimating trade flows: trading partners and trading volumes" 123 (123): 441-487, 2008

24 Chaney, T., "Distorted Gravity: the intensive and extensive margins of international trade" 98 (98): 1707-1721, 2008

25 Arvis, J.-F., "Connecting to compete 2010: Trade logistics in the global economy" The World Bank 2010

26 Hummels, D., "Calculating tariff equivalents for time in trade"

27 The Central Intelligence Agency, "CIA World Factbook"

28 Baier, S., "Bonus Vetus OLS: a simple method for approximating international trade cost effects using the Gravity Model" 77 (77): 63-76, 2009

29 MIGA (The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency), "Benchmarking FDI competitiveness in Asia, Snapshot Asia" The World Bank Group/MIGA 2003

30 Wilson, J., "Assessing the benefits of trade facilitation: a global perspective" 28 (28): 841-871, 2005