Obama 행정부의 아,태 재균형 전략 "중간" 평가 = Interim Assessment of Asia-Pacific Pivot/Rebalancing Strategy of the Obama Adminstration

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글의 목적은 Obama 행정부의 아·태 회귀전략에 대한 ``중간평가``로서, 전략의 진전 사항과 성과보다는 장애요인을 중심으로 분석하고, 미·중관계에 대한 함의를 도출하는 것이다. ``Pivot``으로 시작된 아·태전략은 그 용어가 ``Rebalancing``으로 변화되고, 군사외에도 경제, 외교, 환경, 인권, 보건 등의 요소들로 보완되었다. 신전략의 핵심 구성요소는 군사, 경제 및 외교이다. 신전략은 Obama 행정부의 추진의지, 내용의 건실성 및 필요성에도 불구하고, 처음부터 시퀘스터라는 예산제약으로 어려움을 겪었다. 재균형 전략의 ``중간`` 평가를 위해 안보 딜레마와 군비경쟁, 국방예산 삭감, 중·러간 밀착, 미국리더십의 위기와 신고립주의 경향 등이 재균형 전략의 진전을 가로막는 주요 장애요인들로 선정되었다. 끝으로, ``중간``평가 결과를 요약하고, 아·태 재균형 전략의 맥락 속에서 미래 지향적 미·중관계 발전을 위한 시사점을 도출하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The main focus of this article is on the ``interim`` assessment of the Asia-Pacific Pivot or Rebalancing strategy which was put forward in the third year of the first Obama administration, through analyzing the obstacles of stumbling blocks in the process of implementing the strategy, thereby drawing strategic implications germane to the future oriented US-China relations. The new strategy, initially known as a ``pivot,`` has been renamed to ``rebalancing`` with a view to alleviating the suspicion about the connotation of ``containment`` policy against China, and reinforced and sophisticated by introducing multidimensional and multifaceted aspects such as economy, diplomacy, environment, human rights, and health, as well as military and security. The new strategy is known to be mainly composed of military, economic and diplomatic elements. Despite intense willingness of the US Administration for its implementation, and its robustness and urgent necessities, the strategy was faced with an onerous budgetary limitation dictated by the sequestration from the outset. For the purpose of the ``interim`` evaluation of the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, security dilemma and arms race, the reduction of defense budget, the close relationship between China and Russia, the crisis of American leadership and the emergence of new ``isolationism`` were selected as main factors that are hampering the effective application of the new scheme. Lastly, this article aims at deducing the strategic implications for the forward-looking development of US-China relations in the context of the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 김현욱, "미국의 2014 4년 주기 국방검토보고서(QDR) 분석과 함의, 주요국제문제분석" 국립외교원 안보문제연구소 2014

2 김지용, "무역안보외부효과 가설의 재검토: 동맹의 신뢰성과 무역자유화 사이의 인과관계를 중심으로" 한국정치학회 45 (45): 371-396, 2011

3 김치욱, "네트워크 이론으로 본 미-중 자유무역협정(FTA) 경쟁" 한국국제정치학회 52 (52): 161-190, 2012

4 Gilpin, Robert, "War and Change in International Politics" Cambridge University Press 1981

5 Armitage, Richard, "WMD Developments on the Korean Peninsula" 108-113, 2003

6 Goodman, Matthew P, "US Economic Engagement in East Asia and the Pacific"

7 "Trenin, Dmitri True Partners?: How Russia and China See Each Other"

8 Art, Robert, "The United States and the Rise of China: Implications for the Long Haul" 125 (125): 359-391, 2010

9 Carter, Ashton B., "The U.S. Strategic Rebalance to Asia: A Defense Perspective"

10 Lewis, Meredith Kolsky, "The Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Paradigm or Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing?" 34 (34): 2011

11 Haass, Richard N., "The Irony of American Strategy"

12 Berman, Russell A., "The Great Unraveling: The Remaking of the Middle East Examines the Malady of the Middle East" Hoover Institution Press 2014

13 Beinart, Peter, "The End The End of American Exceptionalism" 2014

14 "The Dragon’s New Teeth"

15 White, Hugh, "The China Choice: Why We Should Share Power" Oxford University Press 2013

16 Ferguson, Niall, "The Black Swan Investors Should Fear"

17 US Department of Defense, "Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for the 21st Century Defense"

18 Zhiye, Ji, "Strategic Prospects for Russia from the Perspective of its Modernization Strategy" 20 (20): 2010

19 Greenert, Jonathan W., "Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, Before the House Armed Services Committee on FY 2014 Department of Navy Posture"

20 Clappere, James R., "Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Director of National Intelligence"

21 Blank, Stephen, "Russia’s Prospects in Asia" Strategic Studies Institute 2010

22 Moshes, Arkady, "Russia-China relations: Current State, Alternative Futures, And Implications for the West" FIIA 2012

23 Stephens, Philip, "Riches and Risk: Welcome to the World of Tomorrow"

24 Obama, Barack, "Remarks by the President at the US Military Academy Commencement Ceremony at Military Academy-West Point"

25 Obama, Barack, "Remarks by President Obama to the Australian Parliament, Canberra"

26 Rice, C., "Remarks at Sophia University by Secretary Condoleezza Rice: Tokyo, Japan"

27 Donilon, Thomas, "Remarks By National Security Advisor to the President: The US and the Asia-Pacific in 2013"

28 Lawrence, Robert Z., "Regionalism, Multilateralism and Deeper Integration" Brookings Institution 1996

29 Denmark, Abraham M., "Regional Perspectives on U.S. Strategic Rebalancing" 15 : 2013

30 Mière, Christian Le, "Rebalancing the Burden in East Asia" 55 (55): 2013

31 "Rebalance to Asia: What Does It Mean For Democracy, Good governance and Human Rights? Hearing Before the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate" 2013

32 US Senate, "Re-balancing the Rebalance: A Majority Staff Report Prepared for the Use of the Committee on Foreign Relations" US Government Printing Office 2014

33 "Putin Pivots to the East"

34 Donilon, Thomas, "President Obama’s Asia Policy and Upcoming Trip to the Region"

35 Gowa, Joanne, "Power Politics and International Trade" 87 (87): 1993

36 Burns, Alexander, "Politico Poll: Stay out of Ukraine, Middle East"

37 Dews, Fred, "Pivot, Rebalance, or Reinvigorate? Words Matter in U.S. Strategy toward Asia"

38 Manyin, Mark E., "Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s ‘Rebalancing’ Toward Asia" 2012

39 Lostumbo, Michael J., "Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits" RAND 2013

40 Nye, Joseph S., "Our Pacific Predicament"

41 Greenert, Jonathan W., "Operating Forward, Strengthening Partnerships" 65 (65): 68-74, 2012

42 Harper, Jon, "Officials raise doubts about Obama administration’s rebalance to Asia"

43 Miller, Zeke J., "Obama Says ‘We Don’t Have a Strategy Yet’ for Fighting ISIS"

44 Runningen, Roger, "Obama Says Singapore Key to U.S. Rebalancing Toward Asia"

45 Kerry, J. F., "Nomination of John F. Kerry to be Secretary of State: Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate One Hundred Thirteenth Congress"

46 Grove, Thomas, "New Chinese stealth jet starts talk of Russian help"

47 White House, "National Security Strategy of the United States"

48 O’Rourke, Ronald, "Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress"

49 Kedmey, Dan, "Majority of Chinese Expect War With Japan by 2020, Poll Finds"

50 Perry, Mark, "Is Obama’s Asia Pivot More Than Talk?"

51 Joffe, Joseph, "How America does it"

52 Kan, Shirley A, "Guam: U.S. Defense Deployments"

53 Roubini, Nouriel, "Global Ground Zero in Asia"

54 Campbell, Kurt, "Explaining the US ‘Pivot’ to Asia" Chatham House 2013

55 DePillis, Lydia, "Everything you need to know about the Trans Pacific Partnership"

56 Drezner, Daniel W., "Does Obama have a Grand Strategy? Why We Need Doctrines in Uncertain Times" 2011

57 The People’s Republic of China, "Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces"

58 "Defense News Leadership Poll"

59 "China’s National Defense in 2008, Council of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing"

60 "China’s Military Rise: The Dragon’s New Teeth"

61 Hayward-Jones, Jenny, "China in the Pacific Islands"

62 Kaplan, Robert D, "Asia’s Cauldron" Random House 2014

63 Pilling, David, "Asia Follows China into an Old-Fashioned Arms Race"

64 Lindsay, James M., "Are Americans Embracing Isolationism? Not When It Comes to Air Strikes on ISIS"

65 US Department of Defense, "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China" DoD 2014

66 US Department of Defense, "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China" DoD 2010

67 Robinson, Gordon, "America’s new isolationism?"

68 Clinton, Hillary, "America’s Pacific Century" 2011

69 Stephens, Bret, "America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder" Sentinel HC 2014

70 US Department of Defense, "Air-Sea Battle: Service Collaboration to Address Anti-Access & Area Denial Challenges"