Detecting artefacts in analyses of extreme wind speeds

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The impact of artefacts in archived wind observations on the design wind speed obtained by extreme value analysis is demonstrated using case studies. A signpost protocol for detecting candidate artefacts is described and its performance assessed by comparing results against previously validated data. The protocol targets artefacts by exploiting the serial correlation between observations. Additional "sieve" algorithms are proposed to identify types of correctable artefact from their "signature" in the data. In extreme value analysis, artefacts displace valid observations only when they are larger, hence always increase the design wind speed. Care must be taken not identify large valid values as artefacts, since their removal will tend to underestimate the design wind speed.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Harris, R.I, "XIMIS – a penultimate extreme value method suitable for all types of wind climate" 97 (97): 271-286, 2009

2 Browning, K.A, "The sting at the end of the tail: Damaging winds associated with extra-tropical cyclones" 130 (130): 375-399, 2004

3 Cook, N.J, "The Designer’s Guide to Wind Loading of Building Structures, Part 1"

4 Gumbel, E.J, "Statistics of Extremes" Columbia University Press 1958

5 Jones, J.G, "Statistical discrete gust theory for aircraft loads: a progress report" Royal Aircraft Establishment 1973

6 Jones, J.G, "Statistical discrete gust method for predicting aircraft loads and dynamic response" 26 (26): 382-392, 1989

7 Cook, N.J, "Review of errors in archived wind data" 69 (69): 72-81, 2014

8 Le Blanc, F, "Rescuing old meteorological data" 65 : 277-280, 2010

9 Cook, N.J, "Note on directional and seasonal assessment of extreme winds for design" 12 (12): 365-372, 1983

10 Cook, N.J, "Extreme wind speeds in mixed climates revisited" 91 (91): 403-422, 2003

11 Gomes, L, "Extreme wind speeds in mixed climates" 2 (2): 331-344, 1978

12 Cook, N.J, "Consolidation of analysis methods for sub-annual extreme wind speeds" 21 (21): 403-444, 2014

13 Lombardo, F.T, "Automated extraction and classification of thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm wind data for extreme-value analysis" 97 (97): 120-131, 2009

14 Gatey, D.A, "An investigation into 50-year return period wind speed differences for Europe" 95 (95): 1040-1052, 2007

15 Efron, B, "An introduction to the bootstrap" Chapman and Hall 1993

16 Gringorten, I.I, "A plotting rule for extreme probability paper" 68 (68): 813-814, 1963

17 Taylor, P.A, "A model for the correction of surface wind data for sheltering by upwind obstacles" 32 (32): 1683-1694, 1993