로터리 사고발생 위치별 사고모형 개발 = Developing Accident Models of Rotary by Accident Occurrence Location

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

PURPOSES: This study deals with Rotary by Accident Occurrence Location. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rotary by location.
METHODS: In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using multiple linear, Poisson and negative binomial regression models and statistical analysis tools.
RESULTS: First, four multiple linear regression models which are statistically significant(their values are 0.781, 0.300, 0.784 and 0.644respectively) are developed, and four Poisson regression models which are statistically significant(their values are 0.407, 0.306, 0.378 and 0.366 respectively) are developed. Second, the test results of fitness using RMSE, %RMSE, MPB and MAD show that Poisson regression model in the case of circulatory roadway, pedestrian crossing and others and multiple linear regression model in the case of entry/exit sections are appropriate to the given data. Finally, the common variable that affects to the accident is adopted to be traffic volume.
CONCLUSIONS: 8 models which are all statistically significant are developed, and the common and specific variables that are related to the models are derived.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

PURPOSES: This study deals with Rotary by Accident Occurrence Location. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rotary by location.
METHODS: In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using multiple linear, Poisson and negative binomial regression models and statistical analysis tools.
RESULTS: First, four multiple linear regression models which are statistically significant(their values are 0.781, 0.300, 0.784 and 0.644respectively) are developed, and four Poisson regression models which are statistically significant(their values are 0.407, 0.306, 0.378 and 0.366 respectively) are developed. Second, the test results of fitness using RMSE, %RMSE, MPB and MAD show that Poisson regression model in the case of circulatory roadway, pedestrian crossing and others and multiple linear regression model in the case of entry/exit sections are appropriate to the given data. Finally, the common variable that affects to the accident is adopted to be traffic volume.
CONCLUSIONS: 8 models which are all statistically significant are developed, and the common and specific variables that are related to the models are derived.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 유두선, "주 · 야간 교통사고의 특성 및 사고모형 비교분석 - 청주시 4지 신호교차로를 중심으로 -" 대한토목학회 28 (28): 181-189, 2008

2 김숙희, "사고다발지점의 안전성능진단 및 위치별 사고요인분석(수원시를 중심으로)" 대한교통학회 23 (23): 9-20, 2005

3 박준태, "도시부 신호교차로 안전성 향상을 위한 사고예측모형 개발" 대한교통학회 26 (26): 99-110, 2008

4 박정순, "도로환경요인과 교통사고의 상관분석 및 사고추정모형 개발 (청주시 4지 신호교차로를 중심으로)" 대한교통학회 25 (25): 63-72, 2007

5 한상진, "도로교통별 교통사고 추세분석 및 시계열 분석모형 개발" 한국도로학회 9 (9): 1-12, 2007

6 오주택, "국도변 신호교차로 안전성 향상을 위한 사고예측모형개발" 대한토목학회 25 (25): 9-15, 2005

7 Pardillo Mayora, Jose M., "Refinement of Accident Prediction Models for the Spanish National Network" 1950 : 65-72, 2006

8 Park, Byung Ho, "Planning and Design of Modern Roundabout" Yeawonsa 2008

9 Ministryof Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, "Design Guideline of Roundabout"

10 Yan, Xuedong, "Characteristics of rear-end accidents at signalized intersections Using multiple logistic regression model" 37 (37): 983-995, 2005

11 Hoong Chor Chin, "Applying the random effect negative binomial model to examine traffic accident occurrence at signalized intersections" 35 : 253-259, 2003

12 박상혁, "4지 신호교차로의 측면접촉사고 특성 및 사고모형 - 청주시를 사례로 -" 한국도로학회 11 (11): 41-46, 2009