쿠바 후계체제에서 ‘외압’과 ‘분절적 경제개혁’의 유산 = 북한에 주는 시사점

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper analyzes the Structural Problems in Post-Castro regime. External pressure, especially in the form of economic embargo and transition project, has been strengthened in Bush administration. But considering anti-americanism of ordinary cuban peoples, effective repression system and underdevelopment of opposition party, external pressure is still not enough for regime change in the Cuban state. It is interesting that Cuban government used mass emigration not merely for decompressing social tensions, but rather to pressure the U.S. government.
The most important problem awaiting solution is the economic reform and social unevenness. Cuba's uneven economic reforms served to strengthen the power of the state vis-a-vis society. This new type of state, which Javier Corrales call 'the gatekeeper state', fragments the economy into different sectors of varying degrees of profitability and then determines which citizens have access to each respective sector.
After Castro regime, three regime-types can be anticipated: a communist successor regime, a military-led successor regime, a democratic-transition regime. This study concludes that under the legacy of castro regime, Cuban state led by Raul Castro, or post-Raul, keeps up the gradual reform Cuban case has implication for North korea in the point of international situation, successive political system and structural similarities of uneven economic reform.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 카스트로 이후 과제의 시사점
• Ⅱ. 쿠바의 ‘영리한 생존전략’과 ‘외압’
• Ⅲ. ‘분절적 경제개혁’과 ‘문지기 국가’
• Ⅳ. 쿠바의 후계체제 전망과 시사점
• 참고문헌
• abstract