지방부 교차로의 도로설계 안전성 판단 알고리즘 구축을 위한 AMF 개발 (신호교차로를 중심으로) = Development of Accident Modification Factors for Road Design Safety Evaluation Algorithm of Rural Intersections

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A traffic accident prediction model developed using various design variables(road design variables, geometric variables, and traffic environmental variables) is one of the most important factors to safety design evaluation system for roads. However, statistical accident models have a crucial problem not applicable for all intersections. To make up this problem, this study developed AMFs(Accident Modification Factors) through statistical modeling methods, historical accident databases, judgment from traffic experts, and literature review by considering design variable’s characteristics, traffic accident rates, and traffic accident frequency. AMFs developed in this study include exclusive left-turn lane, exclusive right-turn lane, sight distance, and intersection angle. Predictabilities of the developed AMFs and the existing accident prediction models are compared with real accident historical data. The results showed that performances of the developed AMFs are superior to the existing statistical accident prediction models. These findings show that AMFs should be considered as a important process to develop safety design evaluation algorithms. Additionally, AMFs could be used as an index that can judge the impact of corresponding design variables on accidents in rural intersections.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

도로설계 안전성을 평가하기 위해서는 도로의 설계 요소변화가 사고에 미치는 영향을 예측할 수 있어야 한다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 통계적 방법, 사고이력, 전문가의 판단, 그리고 기존문헌고찰 등 다양한 방법을 통하여, 설계요소의 특징과 사고율 및 사고빈도의 관계를 반영할 수 있는 AMF(Accident Modification Factor)를 개발하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 AMF를 좌회전전용차로, 우회전전용차로, 시거, 교차각 등의 항목을 대상으로 개발하였다. 개발된 AMF를 적용한 경우의 사고 예측값, 사고예측모형을 통한 예측값을 실제 사고데이터와 비교분석함으로써 적정성을 검토하였다. 분석결과, AMF를 적용한 예측값이 사고예측모형을 통한 예측 값보다 예측력이 우수함을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 사고를 예측함으로써 도로설계 안전성을 평가하는 알고리즘에 있어 AMF가 도로의 설계요소의 특성을 보다 효과적으로 반영하며, 지방부 교차로에서 각각의 해당요소가 사고에 미치는 영향을 판단할 수 있는 지표가 될 수 있음을 의미한다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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