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      국내 산림바이오매스 우드펠릿 생산·수요량 예측 및 제조 원가 분석

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      다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

      Recently, interest in new renewable energy is increasing worldwide. According to the 5-year document of state administration announced by the new government, the government will nullify the construction of new nuclear power plants and increase the proportion of renewable energy generation to 20% by 2030 from 7% in 2016. The government also announced to increase the mandatory rate of its existing 10% RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standards) to 28% by 2030. With the RPS system implemented in 2012, power generation companies with more than 500MW of power generation facilities are compulsorily required to supply more than a certain amount of electricity produced from new renewable energy sources. Biomass fuel usage has increased sharply as a new renewable energy source since 2013 when it started to be used mainly among the Korean power subsidiaries that weredeveloping coal. As a result, they carried out 5.8% in 2013, 20.9% in 2014 and 18.1% of the total mandatory supply amount of RPS using wood pellets and Bio-SRF.
      Wood pellet industry was founded in Korea based on support project for “low-carbon Green Growth” in 2018 and in response to climate change and greenhouse gas by expanding business of new renewable energy development and distribution. Currently, world wood pellet production is 27,963,000 tons/year in 2015, 7.7% more than in 2014, and Korea accounts for 12.8% of the world's imports by importing 1,850,000 tons/year in 2014. However, in the domestic wood pellet market, only few among 23 wood pellet manufacturers operate normally by 2015.
      In this study, the amount of unused forest biomass is estimated based on the analysis method and the growth rate of the forest, and 20% of the byproducts generated during the processing of wood that can be used as the raw material of wood pellets. As a result, it is possible to acquire wood pellet raw materials of 4.57 million tons/year in 2016, 5.23 million tons/year in 2020 and 7.06 million tons/year in 2030. It was concluded that the production of wood pellets of 2.74 million tons/year in 2016, 3.14 million tons/year in 2020 and 4.23 million tons/year in 2030 was possible.
      Based on the worldwood pellet production estimation, 13 million tons of western Europe, 11 million tons of North America, 10 million tons of China and 4.4 million tons of West America by 2020 is predicted, but the domestic wood pellet industry is expected to maintain import dependency rate of 97.2%: domestic production of 53,000 tons, import of 1.72 million tons among 2016 total usage of 1.77 million tons usage in 2016.
      Based on the existing and licensed biomass power plant and wood pellet power plants used for “In case of mixed combustion”, the demand for wood pellets for domestic power generation was estimated to be 3.27 million tons in 2020, 5.44 million tons in 2025and 7.69 million tons in 2030. Assuming that the power generation efficiency of the power plant is 40%, the required amount even increases to be 3.91 million tons in 2020, 6.48 million tons in 2025, and 9.16 million tons in 2030.
      As a result of analyzing the effect of production cost and raw material supply distance of wood pellet manufacturing industry, bigger production capacity and with shorter supply distance of raw material, is more competitive. And the proportion of raw materials cost exceeds 60% of the production cost of wood pellet production of 300,000 tons.
      Assuming supply of raw materials at an average distance of 100km, the appropriate selling price of wood pellets excluding transportation costs was estimated at 272,528 Won/ton. As a result of comparing the price of wood pellets (305,000 Won/ton) sold domestically and industrially in major European countries with domestic prices in Korea, if facilities with production cost more than 300,000 ton/year improve the raw material cost and maintain stable supply of raw materials which accounts for more than 60%, it is possible to compete with foreign wood pellet manufacturers.
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      Recently, interest in new renewable energy is increasing worldwide. According to the 5-year document of state administration announced by the new government, the government will nullify the construction of new nuclear power plants and increase the pro...

      Recently, interest in new renewable energy is increasing worldwide. According to the 5-year document of state administration announced by the new government, the government will nullify the construction of new nuclear power plants and increase the proportion of renewable energy generation to 20% by 2030 from 7% in 2016. The government also announced to increase the mandatory rate of its existing 10% RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standards) to 28% by 2030. With the RPS system implemented in 2012, power generation companies with more than 500MW of power generation facilities are compulsorily required to supply more than a certain amount of electricity produced from new renewable energy sources. Biomass fuel usage has increased sharply as a new renewable energy source since 2013 when it started to be used mainly among the Korean power subsidiaries that weredeveloping coal. As a result, they carried out 5.8% in 2013, 20.9% in 2014 and 18.1% of the total mandatory supply amount of RPS using wood pellets and Bio-SRF.
      Wood pellet industry was founded in Korea based on support project for “low-carbon Green Growth” in 2018 and in response to climate change and greenhouse gas by expanding business of new renewable energy development and distribution. Currently, world wood pellet production is 27,963,000 tons/year in 2015, 7.7% more than in 2014, and Korea accounts for 12.8% of the world's imports by importing 1,850,000 tons/year in 2014. However, in the domestic wood pellet market, only few among 23 wood pellet manufacturers operate normally by 2015.
      In this study, the amount of unused forest biomass is estimated based on the analysis method and the growth rate of the forest, and 20% of the byproducts generated during the processing of wood that can be used as the raw material of wood pellets. As a result, it is possible to acquire wood pellet raw materials of 4.57 million tons/year in 2016, 5.23 million tons/year in 2020 and 7.06 million tons/year in 2030. It was concluded that the production of wood pellets of 2.74 million tons/year in 2016, 3.14 million tons/year in 2020 and 4.23 million tons/year in 2030 was possible.
      Based on the worldwood pellet production estimation, 13 million tons of western Europe, 11 million tons of North America, 10 million tons of China and 4.4 million tons of West America by 2020 is predicted, but the domestic wood pellet industry is expected to maintain import dependency rate of 97.2%: domestic production of 53,000 tons, import of 1.72 million tons among 2016 total usage of 1.77 million tons usage in 2016.
      Based on the existing and licensed biomass power plant and wood pellet power plants used for “In case of mixed combustion”, the demand for wood pellets for domestic power generation was estimated to be 3.27 million tons in 2020, 5.44 million tons in 2025and 7.69 million tons in 2030. Assuming that the power generation efficiency of the power plant is 40%, the required amount even increases to be 3.91 million tons in 2020, 6.48 million tons in 2025, and 9.16 million tons in 2030.
      As a result of analyzing the effect of production cost and raw material supply distance of wood pellet manufacturing industry, bigger production capacity and with shorter supply distance of raw material, is more competitive. And the proportion of raw materials cost exceeds 60% of the production cost of wood pellet production of 300,000 tons.
      Assuming supply of raw materials at an average distance of 100km, the appropriate selling price of wood pellets excluding transportation costs was estimated at 272,528 Won/ton. As a result of comparing the price of wood pellets (305,000 Won/ton) sold domestically and industrially in major European countries with domestic prices in Korea, if facilities with production cost more than 300,000 ton/year improve the raw material cost and maintain stable supply of raw materials which accounts for more than 60%, it is possible to compete with foreign wood pellet manufacturers.

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      목차 (Table of Contents)

      • Ⅰ. 서 론 1
      • 1. 연구배경 1
      • 2. 연구목적 4
      • Ⅱ. 이론적 배경 및 고찰 6
      • Ⅰ. 서 론 1
      • 1. 연구배경 1
      • 2. 연구목적 4
      • Ⅱ. 이론적 배경 및 고찰 6
      • 1. 바이오매스 개요 6
      • 1.1. 목질계 바이오매스의 특징 8
      • 2. 국내 산림바이오매스 원료 부존량 15
      • 2.1. 국내 임목 부존량 15
      • 2.2. 소유별 ha당 임목 축적량 20
      • 2.3. 국내 임목벌채량 및 사용량 24
      • 3. 우드펠릿 품질기준 28
      • 3.1. 우드펠릿 연료 조건(국제표준) 28
      • 3.2. 주요 생산국의 우드펠릿 품질조건 32
      • 3.3. 국내우드펠릿 품질조건 33
      • 4. 해외 우드펠릿시장 현황 36
      • 4.1 해외 우드펠릿 설비 현황 36
      • 4.2 해외 우드펠릿 생산 현황 40
      • 4.3 세계 우드펠릿 교역 현황 43
      • 4.3.1. 세계 우드펠릿 수출 현황 43
      • 4.3.2. 세계 우드펠릿 수입 현황 46
      • 5. 국내 우드펠릿 시장 현황 49
      • 5.1. 국내 우드펠릿 생산 현황 52
      • 5.2. 국내 우드펠릿 수입 현황 54
      • 6. 세계 우드펠릿 수요 전망 56
      • 6.1. 세계 우드펠릿 수요 현황 56
      • 6.2. 주요 국가별 우드펠릿 수요 59
      • 7.국내 우드펠릿 수요 전망 63
      • 7.1. 국내바이오에너지 발전현황 64
      • 7.2. 국내 바이오매스 발전소 현황 및 계획 65
      • 8. 우드펠릿 가격 70
      • 8.1. 세계 주요 사용국 우드펠릿 가격 70
      • 8.2. 국내 우드펠릿 가격 74
      • 9. 바이오매스 이용 관련 법 제도 79
      • 9.1. 신재생에너지 80
      • 9.2. 국가 신재생에너지 기본 계획 82
      • 9.3. 신재생에너지 공급 의무화 제도(RPS) 85
      • 9.3.1. 공급의무자 및 의무공급 비율 85
      • 9.3.2. 신재생에너지공급 인증서(REC) 87
      • 9.3.3. RPS 운영 현황 90
      • 9.3.4. 공급인증서 기준 가격 93
      • 9.3.5. 바이오에너지 설비 기준 94
      • 9.4. 온실가스에너지 목표관리제도 95
      • 9.5. 온실가스 배출권거래제도 97
      • 9.5.1. 온실가스 배출권거래제 운영방식 99
      • 9.5.2. 온실가스 배출권 거래제 적용범위 및 우드펠릿 사용현황 100
      • Ⅲ. 연구방법 102
      • 1. 산림바이오매스 부존 잠재량 및 우드펠릿 생산 가능량 분석 102
      • 2. 바이오매스 발전설비 증설혼소에 따른 우드펠릿 소요량 예측 103
      • 2.1.바이오매스 발전설비 106
      • 2.2.한국전력 발전자회사 혼소 107
      • 3. 우드펠릿 제조 원가 및 손익 분석 108
      • Ⅳ. 연구결과 113
      • 1. 국내 산림바이오매스 잠재량 및 우드펠릿 생산 가능량 113
      • 2. 바이오매스 발전설비 증설혼소에 따른 우드펠릿 소요량 131
      • 2.1. 국내 바이오매스 발전설비 증설에 따른 수요량 예측 131
      • 2.2. 국내 RPS 대상 한국전력 발전자회사 혼소계획에 따른 수요량 예측 135
      • 2.3. 발전소 증설, RPS 대상 발전회사 수요량 예측 137
      • 3. 우드펠릿 제조원가 및 손익 분석 141
      • 3.1. 생산규모별 투자비 142
      • 3.2. 생산규모 별 제조원가 분석 145
      • 3.3. 원재료 수급 거리별 제조원가 분석 147
      • Ⅴ. 결론 및 제언 153
      • 1. 결론 153
      • 2. 정책적 시사점 156
      • 3. 연구의 한계 및 향후 연구과제 157
      • 3.1. 연구의 한계 157
      • 3.2. 향후 연구과제 158
      • 참 고 문 헌 160
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      참고문헌 (Reference) 논문관계도

      1 이정임, 김인숙, 소현정, "목질계 바이오매스의 에너지 활용방안", 경기개발연구원, 경기연구원, 2009

      2 노경상, 천현식, 정연태, 정소영, 양정희, "“우리나라 바이오매스 이용실태에 관한 기초조사”", [사]한국축산경제연구원, 2010

      3 김보미, 소진영, 박형수, 박천건, "“RPS 대응 국내외 바이오·폐기물 에너지원 잠재량 분석 및 확보방안”", 에너지경제연구원(Korea Energy Economics Institute), 에너지경제연구원(기본연구보고서), 2013

      4 구승훈, 황윤주, 이채성, 이지현, 신수록, 박은진, 김진오, 김병삼, "”바이오 매스 에너지화 추진전략 개발" 농림축산식품부, 한국능률협회컨설팅", 블루이코노미전력 연구원, 2014

      1 이정임, 김인숙, 소현정, "목질계 바이오매스의 에너지 활용방안", 경기개발연구원, 경기연구원, 2009

      2 노경상, 천현식, 정연태, 정소영, 양정희, "“우리나라 바이오매스 이용실태에 관한 기초조사”", [사]한국축산경제연구원, 2010

      3 김보미, 소진영, 박형수, 박천건, "“RPS 대응 국내외 바이오·폐기물 에너지원 잠재량 분석 및 확보방안”", 에너지경제연구원(Korea Energy Economics Institute), 에너지경제연구원(기본연구보고서), 2013

      4 구승훈, 황윤주, 이채성, 이지현, 신수록, 박은진, 김진오, 김병삼, "”바이오 매스 에너지화 추진전략 개발" 농림축산식품부, 한국능률협회컨설팅", 블루이코노미전력 연구원, 2014

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