거시경제환경 및 주택매매 소비심리가 아파트 매매가에 미치는 영향 분석 - 코로나19 전후 영향력 비교를 중심으로 - = Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Environment and Consumer Sentiment on Housing Sales Prices

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study empirically analyzes the impact of macroeconomic factors and consumer sentiment on housing sales prices, with a particular focus on comparing their influence before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Housing prices are determined not only by economic variables but also by consumer expectations and sentiment, with psychological factors playing an increasingly significant role in decision-making under conditions of economic uncertainty. To investigate these effects, this study considers housing mortgage interest rates (IR), the consumer price index (CPI), and broad money supply (M2) as key macroeconomic variables, alongside the Housing Sales Consumer Sentiment Index (HSI) to assess the impact of consumer sentiment on housing market volatility.
Using data from the Seoul apartment market spanning July 2011 to November 2024, this study categorizes the period into pre-pandemic (before December 2019) and post-pandemic (January 2020 onwards) phases. The research methodology applies Vector Autoregressive (VAR) frameworks to analyze short- and long-term relationships between variables. Additionally, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Analysis are employed to examine the dynamic effects of macroeconomic and consumer sentiment changes on housing price fluctuations.
During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, government policies such as low interest rates and quantitative easing led to a sharp surge in housing prices. However, empirical analysis indicates that as the pandemic progressed, rising interest rates and inflation constrained housing demand, resulting in price corrections. Additionally, while housing market sentiment previously served as a crucial leading indicator of housing market fluctuations, its explanatory power has diminished over time. Instead, macroeconomic variables have become increasingly dominant in shaping housing price trends, suggesting a shift in the primary determinants of housing market dynamics By integrating macroeconomic variables and consumer sentiment into a unified analysis, this study enhances understanding of housing market volatility and provides crucial policy insights for stabilizing the housing sector during economic shocks. The findings offer empirical evidence to support housing market stabilization policies, encompassing interest rate strategies, inflation management, and consumer sentiment stabilization measures.