Ship Safety Policy Recommendations for Korea: Application of System Dynamics

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aimed to demonstrate and quantify the factors that influence ship safety and ship accidents and suggest policy recommendations for both government and the marine industry in Korea based on the application of system dynamics (SD). Korea was selected as the target country because a number of recent ship accidents have focused attention on ship safety in the region. Three factors that can influence ship safety were considered: economic factors, ship-handling and management factors, and government budget allocation of ship industry. SD was then applied to model the factors involved in ship accidents. Data on ship accidents in Korea from 2009–2014 were included in the model simulation. To measure the simulation accuracy, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) analysis was employed. Following the simulation, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the relationships among the factors involved in ship accidents. Finally, a simulation incorporating ship accident data and government budget allocated to the ship industry was performed. The results of this study can be used in government policy recommendations on ship safety to prevent and reduce ship accidents.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 AKYUZ, E., "Utilisation of cognitive map in modelling human error in marine accident analysis and prevention" 70 : 19-28, 2014

2 HASSEL, M., "Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases" 43 : 2053-2063, 2011

3 PSARROS, G., "Under-reporting of maritime accidents" 42 : 619-625, 2010

4 TOFFOLI, A., "Towards the identification of warning criteria:Analysis of a ship accident database" 27 : 281-291, 2005

5 LU, C.S., "The effects of safety climate on vessel accidents in the container shipping context" 40 : 594-601, 2008

6 Özkan Uğurlu, "The analysis of life safety and economic loss in marine accidents occurring in the Turkish Straits" Informa UK Limited 43 (43): 356-370, 2015

7 HETHERINGTON, C., "Safety in shipping: The human element" 37 : 401-411, 2006

8 Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries in Korea, "Report of maritime security investment plans" 2014

9 UGURLU, O., "Marine accident analysis for collision and grounding in oil tanker using FTA method" 42 (42): 163-185, 2015

10 WENG, J., "Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality" 76 : 92-101, 2015

11 LEWIS, C. D., "Industrial and business forecasting methods: A practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fitting" Butterworth Scientific 1982

12 KNUDSEN, O.F., "IMO legislation and its implementation: Accident risk, vessel deficiencies and national administrative practices" 35 : 201-207, 2011

13 POYRAZ, O., "Gemi Kazalarindan Dogan Krizlerin Kiyisal Yonetimi ve Turk Bogazlari Bolgesine Uygulanmasi"

14 SHU, C., "Composition ship collision risk based on fuzzy theory" 21 : 4296-4302, 2014

15 WANG, G., "Assessment of a ship’s performance in accidents" 15 : 313-333, 2002

16 NIKOLAOS P.V., "Assessing the consequences from marine accidents: Introduction to a risk acceptance criterion for Greece" 19 (19): 699-722, 2013

17 VENTIKOS, N.P., "Assessing the Consequences from Marine Accidents: Introduction to a Risk Acceptance Criterion for Greece" 19 (19): 699-722, 2013

18 CELIK, M., "Analytical HFACS for investigating human errors in shipping accidents" 41 : 66-75, 2009

19 CELIK, M, "A risk-based modelling approach to enhance shipping accident investigation" 48 : 18-27, 2010

20 SAHIN, B., "A novel process model for marine accident analysis by using generic fuzzy-AHP algorithm" 68 : 162-183, 2015

21 BLANC, L.A.L., "A multiple discriminant analysis of vessel accidents" 28 (28): 501-510, 1996

22 MULLAI, A., "A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents" 43 : 1590-1603, 2011