Development of Multivariate Flood Damage Function for Flood Damage Assessment in Gunsan City, Korea

국문 초록 (Abstract)

한국의 경제성장과 재해방재기술 향상에도 불구하고 홍수와 같은 자연재해는 여전히 국민들을 위협하고 있으며 특히, 태풍에 의해 발생한 홍수피해는 막대한 재산과 인명피해의 원인이 되어왔다. 홍수에 의한 피해액을 추정하는 것은 홍수대책마련과 홍수피해를 저감하는데 매우 중요하다. 이와 관련하여 피해 및 손실을 평가 및 분석하고 재해 위험 관리 계획에 따라 해당 지역의 재난 위험을 평가하도록 지정된 정부 기관인 국민안전처는 새로운 손실 산정 방법을 개발하고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 범용 최소자승 회귀분석법과 지리적 가중 회귀분석법을 이용하여 주거용, 상업용, 농업용 건물 유형을 기반으로 군산시의 홍수 피해를 추정하는 홍수피해추정 손실함수를 개발하는 것이다. 모델은 홍수심, 홍수 지속시간, 범람 면적, 가족 수입, 토지 가격을 매개 변수로 구축 된다. 본 연구에서는 홍수피해추정을 위해 범용 최소자승 회귀분석법과 지리적 가중 회귀분석법을 평가하였으며 지리적 가중 회귀 분석법이 홍수피해 추정에는 더 적합한 것으로 분석 되었다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Despite the growing economy and improving disaster prevention techniques of Korea, natural disasters such as floods, typhoon, drought have still threatened people. The counteractions made by flood disasters that were also induced by typhoons have caused significant damages to properties and human life. Estimating flood damage is essential make countermeasures in order to mitigate flood disaster. In this regard, the Ministry of Safety and Security (MPSS), the government institution designated to assess and analyze the damages and losses as well as evaluate the disaster risks of the said areas in accordance to their disaster risk management plans, are now developing a new estimating method for damages and losses. This study aims to develop flood damage functions that will estimate the flood damages of Gunsan City based on the building type: residential, commercial and agricultural facilities, by utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLS) and later on, the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The model building process includes flood depth, flood duration, inundated area, family income and land price as the parameter variables. Both OLS and GWR were evaluated in this study, but the search for which among them is the best fit resulted to the use of GWR.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 요지
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Study Area
• 3. Methodology
• 4. Results and Discussion
• 5. Conclusions
• References

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