아프리카에서의 분할투표: 말라위 사례를 중심으로

국문 초록 (Abstract)

종족투표 경향이 강한 아프리카 민주주의국가에서 누가, 왜 분할투표를 하는가? 종족 일체감에 따라 일관투표를 할 것인가, 아니면 개인적 이익이나 투표효과 극대화를 위해 분할투표할 것인가? 대부분의 아프리카 선거와 투표행태 연구는 대통령선거에 초점이 맞춰져 있으며 다른 선출직-예를 들어 국회의원-을 뽑는 선거에서도 대통령선거에서와 같은 메커니즘을 통해 투표선택으로 이어지는가에 대해서는 별로 알려진 바가 없다. 본 연구는 2014년 말라위에서 수집한 여론조사 자료를 이용해 유권자가 국회의원선거에서 대통령선거와 비교했을 때 어떠한 투표행태를 보이는가를 경험적으로 분석한다. 불안정한 정당체제로 인해 당적 이탈 · 변경이 빈번하게 발생하는 아프리카의 정치적 맥락에서 유권자는 어떤 투표행태를 보이는지 로지스틱 다층모형을 사용하여 분석한다. 분석을 통해 강한 종족투표 성향에도 불구하고 불안정한 정당체제를 극복하고 투표의 효용을 높이기 위해 선거마다 다르게 투표하는 분할투표 현상이 나타나고 있음을 발견했다. 즉, 종족투표를 하지 않는 유권자는 대선과 총선에서 각각 개인의 경제적 이익을 극대화 시켜줄 후보자를 분할해서 선택하거나 각 선거에서 당선 가능성이 높은 후보를 선택한다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 또한, 선거경합도가 높고 종족 다양성이 높은 지역에서 분할투표 가능성이 높아짐을 확인할 수 있었다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Who splits the vote in Africa? While ethnic voting is strong in Africa, would a voter defect to a party of non-co-ethnics? The literature on Africans’ voting behavior mainly focuses on presidential elections, and does not help us understand how the voters choose in parliamentary elections or how their behavior in one election is related to the other type of election. Using the 2014 Afrobarometer survey data in Malawi, the research examines how the voters make choices in both presidential and parliamentary elections. An analysis using multi-level logistic regression models is conducted to estimate individual and constituency-level variables of the data. The results show that strategic voters and clientelistic voters are more likely to split the tickets than those who vote along ethnic lines. Additionally, voters in electorally competitive or ethnically diverse districts appear to be likely vote-splitters.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 이론적 논의와 가설 정립
• Ⅲ. 2014년 말라위 선거의 특징
• Ⅳ. 경험적 분석
• Ⅴ. 결론
• 참고문헌

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