주거 커뮤니티 전력 수요 예측을 위한 확률적 통계 모델 개발

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study developed a series of probabilistic statistical models for electricity demand prediction in residential communities. The series of probabilistic models were developed to reflect individual variation in the electricity demand depending on household characteristics and temporal variability in the pattern of hourly electricity use in a systematic manner. We used the hourly electricity data, including plug-in and lighting energy, from 23 households selected from the public data of the Korea Energy Agency. Models 1 and 2 are based on linear regression models to predict the annual average electricity load depending on the household characteristics and variation in the daily electricity load, respectively. Models 3 and 4 are based on the multivariate normal distribution probability density function to generate hourly electricity load profiles reflecting temporal variation. As a result of applying probabilistic electricity load profiles, individual and temporal variations were reflected.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 1. 서론
• 2. 연구 방법
• 3. 확률적 통계모델 개발
• 4. 결론
• 참고문헌