우크라이나에 대한 푸틴의 전략적 평가 오류 = Putin’s Strategic Miscalculation in Ukraine War

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Putin has used the intelligence community to effectively control his political opponents at home and abroad. The propensity to actively utilize espionage and information collection means so far has been shown to maximize them by combining traditional means and modem digital means in the cyber age. Indeed, even before Putin’s near-disastrous miscalculation regarding the invasion of Ukraine, it confirmed the long-held truth that a monopoly on information can wield great power. But Putin’s assurances about the assumption of strategic intelligence early in the invasion of Ukraine appear to have revealed many problems.
Problems with Putin’s intelligence in the war in Ukraine include: First, Putin’s approach to using information as a political means has resulted in a fundamental error. In other words, Putin focused on using information as a means of punishing dissenting forces or punishing political opponents, which resulted in a failure to properly read the international situation surrounding Russia. Putin made several attempts to break away from the former Soviet politicians, but his use of intelligence was in many ways similar to the way Soviet leaders focused on the problems of the Communist Party rather than external adversaries.
Second, although Ukraine’s intelligence failure ultimately falls to Putin as the coordinator of the intelligence system, it also casts doubt on the agency’s ability to provide a dispassionate strategic assessment to political leaders. Putin has increasingly isolated himself, offsetting the flow of information and challenging analysis. It has resulted in self-destruction. This dynamic is related to the leader’s perception of threat in authoritarian regimes, and dictators generally link their own survival to the regime’s survival without any form of retirement or succession plans. Ultimately, the intelligence limitations of the dictatorship were revealed early in the war in Ukraine.