환율변동성의 분석을 통한 헤지 방안 = Hedging Plan through Analysis of Exchange Rate Volatility

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Through this study was analyzed the volatility of the foreign exchange market in Korea to determine the adequacy of barriers of currency options. First, ARCH-test was performed to determine if volatility in korean foreign exchange market can be analyzed through the ARCH model. As the result, ARCH model is a appropriate tool to measure the volatility of the foreign exchange market in Korea. The volatility of the foreign exchange market in Korea was therefore analyzed through kind of ARCH models. According to the results of analysis by GARCH-model, the volatility of korean foreign exchange market is high and the trend is expected to be continued. And according to analysis by EGARCH-model, the volatility of foreign exchange rate is higher as increasing foreign exchange rate than as decreasing. And the currency options, which are designed against increasing foreign exchange rate, do not have the appropriate means to hedge against the risk of volatility of foreign exchange rate, because low stability. In the market with high exchange rate volatility as korean foreign exchange market, importer and exporter do hedge against the risk of volatility of foreign exchange rate better by relatively safe currency futures in exchange market or forward trading than by derivatives as currency options.

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