Effects of Alcohol and Tobacco Consumptions to Circulatory Diseases and Neoplasm-Related Mortality Excluding Time-Lag Effects: An Analysis of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Time Series Data from South Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examined the correlation and regression relationships between alcohol and tobacco consumption and their impact, which had different degrees of strength if being revealed, on circulatory diseases and neoplasms, which represent causes of mortality based on Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data. The analysis focuses on time-series data from South Korea spanning 2001–2020, excluding time-lag effects from the OECD dataset. The population of OECD member nations showed a gradual decline over the study period, accompanied by corresponding decreases in alcohol and tobacco consumption and mortality rates owing to circulatory diseases and neoplasms. According to the correlation and principal component analyses, tobacco consumption strongly correlates with circulatory diseases and neoplasms, with a directional trend toward the fourth quadrant. In contrast, alcohol consumption showed a weaker correlation with these three variables, trending toward the first quadrant. According to the regression analysis, tobacco consumption demonstrated a stronger predictive relationship with circulatory diseases and neoplasms compared to alcohol consumption, as evidenced by both simple and multiple regression models. Conclusion: By comparing among variables arithmetically and graphically in implementing correlation, principal component, and regression analyses through preprocesses of standardization which has the same x and y intercepts and normalization which has the same range of OECD time-series data (excluding time-lag effects), tobacco consumption had a more significant influence, that is, more correlated, correspondent, and directional onto mortality owing to circulatory diseases and neoplasms—the leading causes of death in OECD data—than alcohol consumption. Therefore, this result might or may be imply that tobacco consumers who have circulatory diseases and/or neoplasms should consider the matter of tobacco smoking in the life over the matter of alcohol drinking. And the public smoking cessation policy has the potential to a healthier human life.