東南亞國家對美中兩國戰略取向的硏究 = Strategic Trends of Southeast Asian Countries towards the US and China

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Over the last 50 years in the late 20th century had been history of opposition and conflicts between East and West camps represented by USA and Russia. On the other hand, next 21th century has been expected that period of contend for supremacy between USA, dominating nation of the world and China, securing status by fast economic growth. Faster than original expectation, aspect of china in all field raised strategic dilemma to several countries of Southeast Asia which would be the first stage of competition between USA and China. Now Southeast Asia is target that USA and China are pursuing aggressive policy involvement. It gathers attention how the Policy targeting Southeast Asia by USA and China will develop, and both sides will interact, and Southeast Asia region and each countries deal with two of them. It is expected that there will be policy reconsidering about Southeast Asia by USA and China due to new government of USA leading by D. Trump and many prospects are already made. Nevertheless there will be microscopic about southeast Asia policy, it is not expected that entails shit of focus targeting Asia. USA prefers status quo to show the leadership of South East area continuously and, China constructed new order of area. China wants to raise it’s voice to the world order. Specifically, at the subregional level in Southeast Asia, ASEAN’s increasingly sophisticated regional security mechanisms, and the competition and cooperation relationships among extra-regional greatpowers are the factors making possible the gradual shift in strategies of Southeast Asian countries away from bandwagon strategies, towards a preferencefor equilibrium strategies.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

冷戰後,東南亞國家作爲一個整體被認爲傾向在域外大國間采取大國平衡戰略。在中國崛起、亞太權力發生轉移的背景下，本文通過細化分析每個國家的對外戰略取向發現，東南亞的不同國家在域外大國中美之間的戰略取向其實是不同的。大部分國家選擇在中美之間保持戰略平衡，也有一部分國家在中美之間選擇追隨其中的一方。每個國家的戰略選擇都受自身條件和外部環境的雙重影響，所做出的戰略選擇也是一定條件下最合邏輯的選擇。東南亞國家在崛起國中國與霸權國美國之間的戰略取向也越來越清晰。“制衡”不可取，“追隨”代價大。更多的東南亞國家如緬甸和菲律賓從“追隨”域外大國的陣營加入“大國平衡”的陣營，“大國平衡”逐漸成爲更多東南亞國家維護戰略利益的最優選擇。領土爭端、政治體制、貿易相互依賴程度以及霸權盟友的可獲得性是影響東南亞國家對崛起國和霸權國戰略取向的四個單元因素，它們塑造了東南亞國家可能的戰略行爲，其中的任何一個發生變化都可能改變其戰略取向。但是，考慮到次地區層次上面臨的安全風險以及體系層面的戰略環境，任何戰略取向的改變都需要一定的地區和體系條件。 在東南亞具體的次地區環境中，東盟逐漸成熟的地區安全機制以及域外大國的競合型關系爲更多東南亞國家逐漸放棄“追隨”戰略轉而偏好“大國平衡” 戰略提供了可能。

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